{lang: 'en-US'} October 2017 ~ ElliottFxTrader Blog

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Tuesday, 31 October 2017

Bitcoin analysis and trading plan for 31/10/2017

Trading plan for 31/10/2017: 
Tuesday's Asian session did not bring any change in volatility. USD/JPY is trading around 113.00 after the Bank of Japan maintained its policy stance unchanged while revising downward inflation projections for 2017 and 2018. EUR/USD is closed in a range between 1.1625 and 1.1650. GBP/USD is trading near 1.32. The two days of correction were again under moderate pressure, especially on the weaker NZD today. 
On Tuesday 31st of October, the event calendar is quite busy with important news releases. During the London session, France will post Preliminary GDP and CPI figures (the same applies to the Eurozone) and Italy will release CPI and Unemployment Rate data. During the US session, Canada will post Gross Domestic Product data and the US will present CB Consumer Confidence and Chicago Purchasing Manager Index data. There are speeches from BOC Governor Stephen Poloz and BOC Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins scheduled later during the day as well.

Bitcoin analysis for 31/10/2017: 
The Lebanese Central Bank, Banque du Liban (BDL) and Governor Riad Salameh said the Bitcoin and other digital currencies are unregulated commodities the use of which should be prohibited.
Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/102342

Global macro overview:
The Swiss economy is performing well and Autumn is welcoming it with a tailwind

The independence of the Catalans is not a strong argument for the decline of the euro, as the events of the weekend suggest that the politicians' decisions are met with resentment among the Catalans themselves.
Read more: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/102284

Global macro overview for 31/10/2017: In the Monetary Policy Statement, BoJ Governor Kuroda said that debating stimulus exit would send a wrong message to the markets.

Global macro overview for 31/10/2017: The recent weeks have left investors sharply negative about the US Dollar. 

German DAX Weekly, Daily & H4 Elliott Wave Analysis

⚐ This might be a very interesting end of the year for German DAX stock index. The weekly time frame cycles indicate a possible incoming top for the wave 5, which in turn will lead to a termination of a cycle degree wave development ( big wave 5). The growing bearish divergence supports the bias.
On a lower time frame, the daily time frame, we can see a confirmation of the previous scenario. The key technical support is seen at the level of 12,941 ( with low at 12,908). Breakout below this support will open the road towards 12, 711 and 12,500. The H4 time frame is a wave progression, that indicates a first near-term target for wave 5. It could be a cluster at the 13,375 - 13,400 zone.  Please notice, the wave five might get extended.
⚑ To może być bardzo interesujący koniec roku dla niemieckiego indeksu DAX. Tygodniowe cykle  wskazują na możliwy wierzchołek szczytu dla fali 5, co z kolei prowadzi do zakończenia rozwoju większego cyklu wzrostowego (duża fala 5). Rosnąca dywergencja negatwyna potwierdza wstępnie niedźwiedzi punkt widzenia.
Na dziennej ramce czasowej możemy zobaczyć potwierdzenie wyżej wymienionego scenariusza. Kluczowe wsparcie techniczne znajduje się na poziomie 12,941 (dołek przy 12,908). Wybicie poniżej tego wsparcia otwiera drogę do 12, 711 i 12,500. Interwał czasowy H4 to progresja fal, która wskazuje na pierwszy docelowy poziom dla fali 5. Może to być klaster fibo w strefie 13,375 - 13,400. Należy zauważyć, że fala pięć może się jeszcze wydłużyć.

Monday, 30 October 2017

Bitcoin analysis & Trading plan for 30/10/2017

Trading plan for 30/10/2017:
 The beginning of the week brings a calm start, but it should not be boring with BoJ, Fed, BoE and NFP reports, and events in Spain. USD is kept in the middle of the rate with limited fluctuations in exchange rates. Only NZD loses more weight under its own weight.The stock market is flat. The Nikkei 225 remains at Friday's closing level, consolidating earlier gains to the 21-year highs. Hang Seng loses 0.1$. On Monday 30th of October, the event calendar is light with important news releases, but the market participants will keep an eye on Retail Sales and Preliminary CPI data from Germany, KOF Economic Barometer data form Switzerland, Net Lending to Individuals data from the UK and Personal Spending data from the US

Bitcoin analysis for 30/10/2017: 
On October 28, zb.com, which is the new platform for cryptocurrency transactions, announced that all commercial functions will be available from November 1st. 

Thursday, 26 October 2017

SP500 Weekly, Daily & H4 Elliott Wave analysis

⚐ The SP500 trend is still up and the main count still has not been completed. Current wave degree indicates another higher high to come as the wave 5 is only a part of the higher degree wave 3.  The target projection for the wave 5 is between the levels of 2586 - 2607, but they still depend on the depth of wave 4 correction. The key technical support is at the level of 2487 points.
⚑ Trend wzrostowy na indeksie SP500 jest kontynuowany a do zakoñczenia potrzebna jest conajmniej jedna fala wzrostowa, jako że fala 5 jest częścią największej fali 3 wyzszego stopnia. Poziom docelowy został zaprojektowany między poziomami 2586 - 2607, ale ten klaster cenowy jest cały czas zalezny od głębokosci korekty fali 4. Kluczowe wsparcie znajduje się na poziomie 2487 punktów.

Bitcoin analysis nad trading plan for 25/10/2017

Trading plan for 26/10/2017: 
The currency market drifted during the Asian session, but a fall on Wall Street is sustained by the temporary weakness of the USD. EUR is slightly higher before the ECB interest rate decision. Nothing interesting happens on the oil market, while gold uses the dollar's weakness and extends the bounce. 
On Thursday 26th of October, the main event of the day is the anticipated ECB interest rate decision and press conference. Moreover, market participants will pay attention to the Eurozone Money Supply data and during the US session to Unemployment Claims, Goods Trade Balance and Pending Home Sales data from the US.

Bitcoin analysis for 26/10/2017: Cointelegraph reported yesterday that the largest US digital currency stock exchange Coinbase will continue to refer to BTC as "real" Bitcoin, while SegWit2x as "B2X" will be treated equally with the altcoins.

Tuesday, 24 October 2017

Crude Oil Weekly Analysis

⚐ After the low at the level of $41.91, the price is still in a short-term uptrend that might reach the level of $55.19 before the top for the wave X will be established. Then a decline towards the level of $39.20 is expected as the downward wave progression will develop in order to complete wave y of B. More impulsive uptrend should develop only when the low for the wave B cycle is in place. The target will be at the level of $62.57 minimum.
⚑ Po dołku na poziomie $41,91, cena nadal znajduje się w krótkoterminowej tendencji wzrostowej, która może osiągnąć poziom 55,19 dolarów, zanim szczyt dla fali X będzie ustalony. Następnie oczekuje się spadku do poziomu $39,20 dolara w miarę rozwijania się fal progresywnych, aby ukończyć falę y od B. Bardziej impulsywna tendencja wzrostowa powinna się rozwijać dopiero wtedy, gdy dołek dla cyklu B będzie na swoim miejscu. Celem późniejszym  będzie poziom minimum  $62.57.

Bitcoin analysis and trading plan for 24/10/2017

Trading plan for 24/10/2017: 
The markets are still waiting to settle in a set of political themes, which condemns trade to remain in the narrow band. Speculation that the central bank's mandate to change in New Zealand harms NZD, which is today the weakest.The rest of FX is relatively stable, waiting for settlement on the ECB side, Brexit, US tax reform, the election of the Fed Chair. EUR/USD rebounded at 1.1770 overnight. USD/JPY has fallen to 113.20 in the New York session but is already heading towards 113.50. 
On Tuesday 24th of October, the event calendar is busy with important data releases in form of a set of Flash PMI Manufacturing, Services and Composite data from France, Germany, Eurozone and the US.

Bitcoin analysis for 24/10/2017: 
The planned Bitcoin fork will be held not on 25/10/2017 as originally announced, but the day before, at the height of block 491407, when miners begin to form blocks with the new proof-of-work algorithm, Equihash. 

Global macro overview for 24/10/2017: 
The New Zealand Dollar is usually strong in the periods of risk appetite, but in recent days has been hit by the domestic political developments. 

President Donald Trump said that he is "very, very close" to announcing his nominee for chairman of the Fed.

Monday, 23 October 2017

Bitcoin analysis and Trading Plan for 23/10/2017

Trading plan for 23/10/2017: 
USD/JPY touched three-month highs after Prime Minister Abe's victory in the Japanese election. The Nikkei shows a positive reaction while other markets remain stable in the face of today's lackluster publication. EUR/USD stands at 1.1770 and investors do not show much interest in the political dispute in Spain. 
On Monday 23rd of October, the event calendar is very light in important events releases. The only news worth to keep an eye on is the Wholesale Sales data from Canada.

Bitcoin analysis for 23/10/2017: Research by CB Insights shows that Goldman Sachs, Google and Citi Bank are among the five most active corporate investors in Blockchain.

Wednesday, 18 October 2017

Bitcoin analysis and trading plan for 18/10/2017

Trading plan for 18/10/2017: 
The FX market remains tight and stock indices consolidate recent gains. Gold reverses Tuesday's gains and Crude Oil is rallying higher by a good API report. The 19th Congress of the Communist Party of China has started, but so far the conference has brought more pompous language than the announcement of actual action.

Bitcoin analysis for 18/10/2017: 
Users of Blockchain will be able to have their Bitcoin Cash. On October 11, the company announced that it was allowing customers to access their BCH resources.

Global macro overview for 17/10/2017: 
According to the Minutes, the RBA members noted that the Australian economy had grown by 0.8% in the June quarter, in line with the Bank's forecast.

Global macro overview for 17/10/2017:
A surprising information on the Brexit negotiations is attacking the financial markets every day now.

Monday, 16 October 2017

Bitcoin analysis and trading plan for 16/10/2017

Trading plan for 16/10/2017: 
The first trading hours this week bring little traffic to the currency market. Data from China have gone unnoticed; nervous reactions also are not seen after the election results in Austria. Crude Oil goes up for fear of new sanctions for Iran. EUR/USD is trading around the level of 1.1800, USD/JOY around the level of 111.70 and GBP/USD around the level of 1.3300. 
On Monday 16th of October, the event calendar is light in important economic data releases, but the market participants will keep an eye on Wholesale Price Index data from Germany, Trade Balance data from the Eurozone, Empire State Manufacturing Index data from the US and Foreign Securities Purchases data from Canada.

According to the news that broke through Russian Minister of Communications Nikolay Nikiforov, in a meeting behind the closed door, the Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin has officially stated that Russia will issue its own "CryptoRuble" digital currency. 

Thursday, 5 October 2017

DAX30 Daily & H4 Elliott Wave Analysis

⚐ The price of German index DAX30 might just hit the local high at the level of 12972 and the internal impulsive wave progression might have been terminated. If the level of 12,972 is the top of the wave 5 (what would mean the larget time frame cycle of the bigger degree has been completed as well), then the market should impulsively decline towards the level of 12,666 first and then towards the level of 12,365. The clear and visible bearish divergence between the price and momentum oscillator support the view. Nevertheless, there is still a chance, that the level of 12, 972 is the top of the wave 1 of the overall impulsive structure in the whole wave 5. In that case the market would just correct to the level of gap and then rebounded in the direction of the larger time frame trend.
As long as the level of 11, 881 is not clearly violated in impulsive fashion, the outlook still remains bullish.
⚑ Cena indeksu niemieckiego DAX30 mogłaby dotknąć lokalnego poziomu na poziomie 12,972, a wewnętrzny impuls falowy mógł się zakończyć. Jeśli poziom 12,972 jest szczytem fali 5 (co oznaczałoby również koniec większego cyklu czasowego większego stopnia), rynek powinien impulsywnie spadać do poziomu 12,666, a następnie do poziomu 12,365. Wyraźna i widoczna negatywna dywergencja pomiędzy oscylatorem momentum i cena podtrzymuje pogląd. Niemniej jednak nadal istnieje szansa, że poziom 12, 972 jest szczytem fali 1 ogólnej struktury impulsowej na całej fali 5.  W takim wypadku po krótkiej korekcie w kierunku luki, rynek odbije i podazy za trendem.
Tak długo, jak poziom 11, 881 nie jest wyraźnie naruszony w impulsywny sposób, perspektywy nadal pozostają wolne.

Trading plan for 05/10/2017

Trading plan for 05/10/2017: 
An unexpected drop in retail sales in Australia was the only volatile moment of sleepy trading hours in Asia. The rest of forex pairs remained in narrowband fluctuations. The DXY Dollar Index is unmoved, the EUR/USD pair has found a stop at 1.1750, and USD/JPY cannot break through at 112.90. It was also quiet on the stock market. Crude Oil remains close to $50, and Gold holds at $1,275 level. 
On Thursday 5th of October, the economic calendar is light in important news releases. Early in the morning, Switzerland will release Consumer Price Index data and ECB will release Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts data. During the US session, Canada will release Trade Balance data and the US will post Unemployment Claims and Factory Orders data. Some speeches are scheduled later today from FOMC members Jerome Powell, Patrick Harker, and John Williams.

#Bitcoin analysis for 05/10/2017: https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/100563
Global macro overview:  

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