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Wednesday, 23 August 2017

Trading plan for 23/08/2017


Trading plan for 23/08/2017: 
The weakest major currency today is the New Zealand Dollar, which is losing 0.55%. NZD / USD falls below 0.7250 and towards last week's minimum. EUR/USD is trading in a narrow, 20 pips range around the level of 1.1750. Wall Street's reflection is about 1.0%. Asia is also dominated by green, but the gains are more modest. The API report showed a drop in inventories of about 3.5 million barrels, which was accompanied by an increase in gasoline inventories. As a result, the WTI crude oil price has fallen to $ 47.50. The ounce of Gold is priced at $1285. 
On Wednesday 23rd of August, the event calendar is busy with important news release during the London session. The set of Flash PMI Services and Manufacturing data from across the Eurozone is scheduled for release during the morning trading hours.Moreover, there is a speech from ECB President Mario Draghi in Lindau early in the morning as well. Later during the day, the US will post Flash PMI data and New Home Sales data as well.

Monday, 21 August 2017

Trading plan for 21/08/2017


Trading plan for 21/08/2017: 
On Monday 21st of August, the event calendar is light in important data releases. Only during the US session, the global investors will focus on Wholesale Sales data from Canada.

Friday, 18 August 2017

Trading plan for 18/08/2017


Trading plan for 18/08/2017: 
The US Dollar is losing against all major currencies. The strongest are GBP, JPY, and SEK. The global investors are shocked after yesterday's attacks in Barcelona: Gold lost 0.1%, Silver is down 0.35%. On the Asian stock market sentiment is still negative: Nikkei drops -1.2%, Hang Seng -0.55%, Shanghai Composite gains + 0.1%. In the US Nasdaq 100 falls -2.05%, the S&P 500 -1.54% and the Dow Jones -1.24%.
On Friday 18th of August, the event calendar is busy in an important news release only during the US session. During this session, Canada will release Consumer Price Index data and the US will release Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment and Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count data. At the end of the trading day, there is a scheduled speech by FOMC member Robert Kaplan.

Thursday, 17 August 2017

EUR/USD H4 Analysis Update









⚑ If it do not want to fall, it will go up as long as the level of 38% Fibo at 1.1608 will continue support the price. Of course, the correction may be extended in time and in the price, and the next target levels for correction are at 1.1515 and 1.1420. However, after the wave 4 correction is completed, another impulsive wave up is anticipated. It can be in the form of only a single candle rising above 1.1911 level.

⚐ Jak nie chce spadać, to będzie rosnąć, o ile poziom 38%Fibo na poziomie 1.1608 utrzyma spadki. Oczywiście korekta może ulec wydłużeniu w czasie i w cenie, a kolejne poziomy docelowe dla korekty są na poziomie 1.1515 oraz 1.1420. Niemniej jednak, po zakończeniu korekty fali 4, spodzewana jest kolejna fala wzrostowa. Może ona być w formie tylko pojedyńczej świeczki wzrostowej wybijającej poziom 1.1911.


Więcej szczegółów i wykresów różnych par walutowych, w tym kryptowalut na moim profilu na Tradingview.com dostepne jest pod linkiem poniżej.




Trading plan for 17/08/2017

Trading plan for 17/08/2017: 
The FOMC Meeting Minutes release has clearly weakened the US Dollar, which is losing today to all major currencies. The strongest is JPY, which is up 0.34%, then NOK and AUD (+0.2%). Among precious metals, a positive sentiment is still present, the Gold ounce is at $1287 (+0.3%), Palladium climbs +1.1%, Silver +0.1%. On the Asian stock market mixed sentiment, Shanghai Composite rose 0.35%, but Hang Seng and Nikkei lost 0.2% respectively and 0.1%. 
On Thursday 17th of August, the event calendar is busy with important data release. First, the UK will post Retail Sales With Auto Fuel data, then EU will post Trade Balance, Consumer Price Index data and ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts from July. During the US session, Canada will reveal Manufacturing Sales data and US will present Unemployment Claims, Continuing Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Industrial Production data. Later during the session, FOMC member Robert Kaplan will give a speech.

Tuesday, 15 August 2017

Ethereum Daily and H4 Analysis

⚐ The world's second-largest cryptocurrency after Bitcoin is becoming increasingly more popular. Ethereum (ETH/USD) has been pushing higher over the past two weeks, with prices crawling back above $250.00 for the first time since June after lawmakers in South Korea announced tentative plans to regulate crypto currency. According to CNBC, over 60% of ETH purchases are happening in the Won, South Korean currency and this country can become the second-largest Asian country after Japan to regulate the cryptocurrency. 
The current positive and optimistic fundamental situation of Ethereum is being backed up by the technical picture, which shows a very bullish outlook for this cryptocurrency. It is very possible that the recent highs at the level of $414.94 will be challenged soon. Moreover, the current uncertain geopolitical situation ( the USA - North Korea conflict) might even speed up this process as plenty of global investors are looking for a different than usual safe-haven currency than Japanese Yen of Swiss Franc to invest. Ethereum (and the whole blockchain based industry) might quickly become the next safe asset for global investors in uncertain times.

Support/Resistance:
111.89 - Wave 2 Low
130.91 - WS3
152.29 - WS2
173.86 - WS1
195.33 - Weekly Pivot
209.03 - Technical Support
215.82 - WR1
237.78 - WR2
253.40 - Technical Resistance
265.77 - WR3
414.94 - All-Time High

Trading recommendations:
The Elliott wave development on a daily time frame chart indicates an impulsive bullish scenario towards the recent all-time high to be in progress. In this scenario, it is very possible that the top for the wave 1 at the level of 414.94 will be tested soon as the corrective cycle had been completed at the level of 131.00. On an H4 time frame, the impulsive reaction from the lows at the level of 131.00 is clear and visible so this would have to be the beginning of the wave one of the lesser degrees. Since then, the market had completed a short wave two corrections ( 2 pink) and currently is developing wave 3. Any breakout above the level of 235.40 will confirm the bullish scenario. However, please notice, the momentum is diminishing during the up moves so the internal corrective cycle might be a little bit longer and time-consuming. The technical support for this wave is seen at the level of 209.03.  The overall long-term bias in very bullish.

⚑ Druga pod względem wielkości kryptowaluta na świecie po Bitcoin staje się coraz bardziej popularna. Ethereum (ETH / USD) wzrosła w ciągu ostatnich dwóch tygodni, po raz pierwszy od czerwca po tym, jak ustawodawcy z Korei Południowej ponownie ogłosili wstępne plany regulowania kryptowalut. Według CNBC, ponad 60% zakupów w ETH ma miejsce w walucie Won w Korei Południowej, a ten kraj może stać się drugim co do wielkości krajem azjatyckim po Japonii.
Obecna pozytywna i optymistyczna podstawowa sytuacja Ethereum jest wspierana przez techniczny obraz, który pokazuje bardzo upartą perspektywę tego krypto waluty. Jest bardzo prawdopodobne, że niedawne wysokie poziomy na poziomie 414,94 USD zostaną wkrótce zakwestionowane. Co więcej, obecna niepewna sytuacja geopolityczna (konflikt USA - Korea Północna) może przyspieszyć ten proces, ponieważ inwestorzy globalni poszukują innej niż zwykle waluty bezpiecznej gotówki, niż japoński Jen czy Frank szwajcarski. Ethereum (i cały przemysł bazujący na technilogii blockchain) mogą szybko stać się kolejnym bezpieczna przystania dla inwestorów globalnych w niepewnych momentach.

Progresja fal Elliotta na wykresie dziennym wskazuje na rozwijajacy sie  impulsywny scenariusz. W tym scenariuszu jest bardzo możliwe, że szczyt fali 1 na poziomie 414,94 zostanie przetestowany wkrótce po zakończeniu cyklu korekcyjnego na poziomie 131,00. Na interwale H4 impulsowa reakcja z dołka na poziomie 131,00 jest jasna i widoczna, więc musiałby to być początek fali mniejszego stopnia. Od tamtej pory rynek zakończył krótką falę korekty (2 różowe) i obecnie rozwija się fala 3. Każdy wybicie ponad poziom 235.40 potwierdzi byczy scenariusz. Należy jednak zauważyć, że momentum maleje podczas wzrostów, więc wewnętrzny cykl korekcyjny może być trochę dłuższy i czasochłonny. Wsparcie techniczne tej fali widać na poziomie 209.03. Ogólnie długoterminowe nastawienie jest bardzo bycze.






Monday, 14 August 2017

Bitcoin Weekly, Daily and H4 Analysis


⚑ Bitcoin analysis for 14/08/2017:

The Bitcoin (BTC) has hit the new all-time high at the level of $4222 on speculation that SegWit2x activation and the resulting faster transaction times will improve the virtual currency’s acceptability across the globe. After a split in the Bitcoin environment a week ago. On August 1st the global investors experienced a hard fork, which broke SegWit (Bitcoin) and "big block" (Bitcoin Cash) supporters. Exactly one week after this event, investors witnessed another important event in the history of the oldest crypto currency. The Segregated Witness, the improvement protocol proposed in BIP141 (Bitcoin Improvement Proposal) entered the lock-in state on August 8th after the 479707 block harvest. Since then the price of Bitcoin moved above $4000.
The crypto currency is gaining a lot of attention among the global investor's community. Despite the skeptics doubt the rally and call for a crash in the Bitcoin, the up trend prevails. So far there is no technical indication of up trend termination or topping out process development. Bitcoin has quadrupled in value this year and has gained around 36% so far this month.

Trading recommendations:

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at weekly,  daily and H4 time frames. The market is developing wave 3 of the overall five waves impulsive wave progression, which is visible on the weekly chart. There are no signs of trend reversal yet and the nearest support is seen at the level of $3223. On the intraday H4 time frame chart, the potential target for the projected wave (iv) correction is at the level of $3836, just above the weekly pivot at the level of $3690. The trend is up and the overall bias is to the upside. Please notice, that RSI is overbought on the daily, 4-hour and 1-hour time frame, but the momentum remains strong.


Support/Resistance:

4783 - WR1
4222 - All-Time High
4173 - 100%Fibo Projection Target
3836 - Local Support
3690 - Weekly Pivot
3452 - Technical Support
3223 - Technical Support
3190 - WS1
2890 - Technical Support

 ⚐
Analiza Bitcoin na dzieñ 14/08/2017:

Bitcoin (BTC) osiągnął nowy rekordowy szczyt na poziomie 4222 USD z powodu spekulacji, że aktywacja SegWit2x i wynikające z tego szybsze transakcje poprawią akceptację wirtualnej waluty na całym świecie. Po podzieleniu środowiska Bitcoin tydzień temu, 1 sierpnia globalni inwestorzy doświadczali hard forka, który podzielil Segwit (Bitcoin) i "big block" (Bitcoin Cash). Dokładnie tydzień po tym wydarzeniu po raz kolejny byli wystawieni na dzialanie innego ważnego wydarzenia w historii najstarszej waluty krypto. Segregated Witness, protokół ulepszeń zaproponowany w BIP141 (Bitcoin Improvement Proposal) wszedł w stan zamykania 8 sierpnia po zbiorze blokowym 479707. Od tego czasu cena Bitcoin przekroczyła 4000 dolarów.
Kryptowaluty przyciągaja wiele uwagi wśród wspólnoty inwestorów globalnych. Pomimo tego, że sceptycy wzywają do katastrofy i pęknięcia banieczki, na Bitcoin nadal dominuje tendencja wzrostowa. Do tej pory nie ma technicznych wskazówek na temat odwrócenia trendów lub wyeliminowania procesu rozwoju. Bitcoin w tym roku osiągnął czterokrotność w wartości i osiągnęła w tym miesiącu około 36%. Trend wzrostowy jeszcze się nie zakończył.

Rekomendacje handlowe:

Przyjrzyjmy się teraz obrazowi technicznemu Bitcoin w raporcie tygodniowym, dziennym i H4. Rynek rozwija falę 3 ogólnych pięciu fal impulsu, która jest widoczna na wykresie tygodniowym. Nie ma jeszcze oznak odwrócenia trendu, a najbliższe wsparcie jest widoczne na poziomie 3223 USD. Na wewnętrznym wykresie czasowym H4, potencjalny cel przewidywanej fali (iv) jest na poziomie 3836 USD, tuż powyżej tygodniowego obrotu na poziomie 3690 USD. Trend jest wzrostowy a ogólne nastawienie jest pro-wzrostowe. Proszę zauważyć, że RSI jest wykupiony w dziennych, 4-godzinnych i jednogodzinnych przedziałach czasowych, ale momentum pozostaje silne.







Trading plan for 14/08/2017:


Trading plan for 14/08/2017: 
The Asian stock market starts the week with gains after no news regarding the US-North Korea conflict were published during the weekend. The Hang Seng rises slightly more than +1.0% while the Shanghai Composite added +0.85%. The yen and the franc stand out in the foreign exchange market, both of them posted the highest growth last week. Gold loses 0.3%, platinum falls by 0.75%. 
On Monday 14th of August, the event calendar is light with only the Industrial Production data from the Eurozone on tap. Nevertheless, there were some overnight data that might play a role today. The Retail Sales data from China were at 10.4% which can be considered as a healthy read, and the Industrial Production was at 6.4%. Positive figures came from Japan. Annualized GDP dynamics fell to 4% q/q (2.5% threshold).



Tuesday, 8 August 2017

Trading plan for 08/08/2017


Trading plan for 08/08/2017: 
Slight losses of the US Dollar can be noticed across the board and it was caused yesterday by Fed officials Bullard and Kashkari who said they were in no hurry to raise interest rates. On the Asian stock market the mixed sentiment prevails. The Hang Seng is up nearly 0.4%, the Nikkei 225 drops 0.3%, and the Shanghai Composite is near yesterday's closing price. 
On Tuesday 8th of August, the event calendar is light, but market participants will pay attention to the German and French Trade Balance data, the JOLTs Job Openings data and the NFIB Small Business Optimism data from the US. Besides, Canada will unveil the Housing Starts data.

Friday, 4 August 2017

GBP/USD H4 Analysis Update


⚑ The geometrical range of wave A is equal to the wavelength C measured from the bottom of wave B, so we have to deal with the typical waveform progression characteristic for eg Zig-Zag formation. In principle, wave W from wave 4 could end here, especially since it is practically 38% Fibo from 1.3142. Nevertheless, there is still the possibility that if the internal elimination of 61% of Fibo at 1.13061 is not clearly violated, then the next wave of growth may be possible. This wave is also labeled as wave W from wave 4. If the level of 61% of the Fibo at 1.3061 is affected impulsively, then the probable scenario is down to 1.2931.

⚐ Zasięg geometryczny fali A jest równy długości fali C mierzonej od dołka fali B, mamy wiec do czynienia z typową progresją falową charakterystyczną dla np: formacji Zyg-Zak. W zasadzie fala W od fali 4 mogłaby sie tutaj już zakończyć, tym bardziej, że jest praktycznie pod 38%Fibo z poziomu 1.3142. Niemniej jednak, istnieje ciagle możliwość, że jeżeli wewnętrzne zniesienie 61%Fibo na poziomie 1.13061 nie zostanie wyraźnie naruszone, to możliwa będzie kolejna, prawdopodobnie ostatnia fala wzrostowa na tym walorze. Ta fala również jest oznaczona jako fala W od fali 4. Jeżeli poziom 61%Fibo na 1.3061 zostanie naruszony w sposób impulsywny,, to bardziej prawdopodobny staje sie scenariusz spadkowy aż do poziomu 1.2931.




Thursday, 3 August 2017

Trading plan for 03/07/2017


Trading plan for 03/07/2017: 
During the night AUD and NZD lost about 0.4% against USD as the volatility of other currencies is minimal and barely exceeds 0.1%. Crude oil recouped all yesterday's losses, which we observed after reading the EIA report. Now WTI is trading at $49.40 level. On the Asian stock market the negative sentiment prevails, although the decline did not take on considerable size. 
On Thursday 3rd of August, the event calendar is very busy with the important news release. The news of the day will be Bank of England Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Summary, and BoE Governor Mark Carney's speech. Moreover, during the early London session, Services and Composite PMI readings will be released from across the Eurozone and the UK. During the US session, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Factory Orders, and Unemployment Claims data will be released.

SP500 Elliott Wave Analysis Update








⚑ Another minimal peak on the SP500 index does not break the overall concept of the evolution of the corrective structure. The wave 3 peak is slightly below, but the current side movement is characteristic for the emerging wave 4 correction. The duration and magnitude of this correction is not known at present, so it is not possible to post wave 5 target projections today. What we can do, however, is to get acquainted with local techncial support levels, which the index responds correctly: 2460 points and 2451 points. Until the end of correction, the market will move in the lateral trend.
⚐ Kolejny minimalny szczyt na indeksie SP500 nie burzy ogólnej koncepcji rozwoju struktury korekcyjnej. Szczyt fali 3 jest nieco poniżej, ale obecny ruch boczny jest jak najbardzije charakterystyczny dla rozwijającej się korekty horyzontalej fali 4. Czas trwania i stopień żłożoności tej korekty nie jest obecnie znany, tydież nie można na dzień dzisiejszy zaprojektować poziomów docelowych dla fali 5. Można natomiast zaznajomić się z pozimami wspacia lokalnego, na które indeks poprawnie reaguje: 2460 punktów oraz 2451. Do czasu zakończenia korekty rynek poruszać się będzie w trendzie bocznym.

Więcej analiz i dostępnych jest na www.fxparkiet.pl





 
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