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Thursday, 5 January 2017

US Dollar Index - 2017 Analysis - Monthly, Weekly , Daily and H4









General overview for 05/01/2017:

The impulsive wave progression to the upside did not hit the projected target level yet (gray rectangle on Monthly chart), just where the monthly supply confluence zone is. Moreover, there is still no confirmation, whether the upward move will be a fully developed impulsive structure or a big ABC Irregular Flat correction.



At the Weekly time frame chart, we can see the break out from the triangle pattern in wave (4) with a top at the level of 103.83 points. Since then the market is the corrective cycle.



Daily time frame provides more clues regarding a possible termination of the wave (5) at the level of 103.83 and the top for wave 3 or C. The EWP suggest the full impulsive structure might have been completed since the level of 99.42 had been made a bottom and the growing bearish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillator supports this view. Nevertheless, the overbalance in corrections still hasn't been reached as the level of 100.52 hasn't been violated yet.



The intraday H4 time frame chart shows that the level od 101.78 is the most important support for bulls. Any break out below this level would result in further deterioration towards the level of 100.52 and then 99.42.




Support/Resistance:

108.73 - Projected Monthly Target Level for Wave (5)/3
103.83 - Swing Top
102.42 - 102.57 - Intraday Resistance
101.78 - Intraday Support
100.52 - Technical Support | Overbalance Level |
  99.42 - Wave 4 Bottom

Trading recommendations:

All long term swing buy orders should be rather careful at the current levels as any break out below 100.52 will be the first sign that some kind of a top ( temporary/permanent) is in place. So far, however,  there is no other confirmation that the bullish trend might reverse*.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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