{lang: 'en-US'} September 2016 ~ ElliottFxTrader Blog

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Monday, 26 September 2016

EUR/USD Weekly, Daily, H4 and H1 Analysis









General overview for 26/09/2016:

There is a chance that the main impulsive count is being now is progress, nevertheless the amount of the structure called 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 i a little too many for my taste, but  hey, what the hell do I know anyway?
This is the reason why I have included the alternative count that is based on a big triangle structure.

Support/Resistance:
1.1430 - Blue Impulsive Count Invalidation
1.1365 - Green Impulsive Count Invalidation
1.1342 - WR2
1.1294 - WR1
1.1207 - Weekly Pivot
1.1160 - WS1
1.1122 - Technical Support

Trading recommendations:
The bigger and smaller time frame outlook still points to the downside and bearish trend resumption is expected sooner or later*.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.







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Wednesday, 21 September 2016

USD/PLN Weekly Analysis


General overview for 21/09/2016:

The top of the wave 3 seems to be in place and now a large, corrective cycle in form of a triangle pattern is in progress. On the other hand, there is a clear three wave downside development after the wave 3 top at the level of 4.1555 that might be labeled as wave 4. Nevertheless, it looks too short in time compared to wave 2, which is why I pursued with a more time-consuming corrective pattern. Anyway, as long as the demand zone between the levels of 3.5432 - 3.600 is not clearly violated, the probability of another high is still on the table.

Support/Resistance:
4.1555 - Swing top
4.0193 - 4.1256 - Internal Supply Zone
3.5432 - 3.6000 - Weekly Demand Zone

Trading recommendations:
Swing traders should still keep the long-term buy orders open as there is no sign of a possible up trend reversal yet*.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.


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Wednesday, 7 September 2016

Gold XAU/USD Daily Analysis









General overview for 07/09/2016:

There is still a chance that the impulsive bullish count will break out above the swing high at the level of 1377 and enters the weekly supply zone as wave 3. Nevertheless, to do this, the bulls must first break out from the horizontal congestion zone between the levels of 1305 - 1377, otherwise the correction will evolve to more complex and time-consuming cycle.

Support/Resistance:

1432 -1391 - Weekly Supply
1377 - Local High
1318 - 1307 - Key Level
1253 - Invalidation Level #1
1202 - Invalidation Level #2

Trading recommendations:

All long-term buy order should be still kept open. There is a possibility to add to the current long positions when the market will be trading around the key level zone*.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.


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Monday, 5 September 2016

GBP/JPY Weekly, Daily and H4 Analysis









General overview for 05/09/2016: 

As anticipated many months ago the top of the wave C of the wave 4 had been established at the level of 195.93. Since then the market has been in a down ward wave progression, where another five waves had been made. The bottom of this progression looks to be at the level of 128.75 and now the market is in the corrective cycle. The best-fitting Elliott wave count is an (a)(b)(c) Zig-Zag pattern with currently unfinished wave (c). The projected target for an ideal termination level for wave (c) is 50%Fibo at the level of 144.44. Nevertheless, the current horizontal wave progression might evolve into more complex and time-consuming pattern, like double/triple Zig-Zag or any other complex WXYZ pattern.

Support/Resistance:

128.75 - Long Term Bottom
136.85 - Wave iv Support
138.84 - Wave (3) Top
140.75 - 38%Fibo
144.44 - 50%Fibo

Trading recommendations:

There are no visible clues regarding the down trend reversal in the higher time frames as there is one more wave to the downside to made. Bias is still sideways/bearish*.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.




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Thursday, 1 September 2016

Crude Oil H4 Analysis









General overview for 01/09/2016:
(previous analysis of this market can be seen here)

There are two possible scenarios at the Crude Oil market right now: one of them is bullish (impulsive, main one) and the other one is bearish.sideways (complex corrective structure, alternative one):
 - Scenario One - Main Count - The bullish wave progression in order to develop wave 3 had been terminated at the level of 49.35 where the top for the wave 1 is. Currently, a sub-wave 2 of the overall impulsive structure is being developed, so we got two possible zones for the correction to terminate ( two gray rectangles). The lower rectangle is the key zone where plenty of various supports confluence, so it more solid for bulls.
 - Scenario Two - Alternative Count - According to this wave progression the market is still in a complex horizontal correction. One more wave is still being expected to the upside with the top above the level of 51.67 before the market will reverse and go back to the downtrend again.

Support/Resistance:
39.17 - Technical Support
41.04 - Technical Support
43.50 - 43.07 - Key Reversal Zone
43.40 - WS3
44.27 - 44.65 - Potential Reversal Zone
44.93 - WS2
45.95 - WS1
46.35 - Line In The Sand for Bears
47.45 - Weekly Pivot
48.50 - WR1
49.35 - Technical Resistance
49.98 - WR2

Trading recommendations:
Daytraders should remain bearish with a target at the Key Reversal Zone.
Swingtraders should wait for the market to go lower towards the Key Reversal Zone and buy the dips with tight SL*.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.


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