{lang: 'en-US'} June 2016 ~ ElliottFxTrader Blog

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Thursday, 30 June 2016

Crude Oil H4 Analysis Update









General overview for 30/06/2016:
(the previous analysis for this market can be seen here)

The corrective cycle in wave 2 might be considered done, but the market is currently too weak to break out above the golden trend line at the level of $50.  The internal corrective cycle is being expected currently, but it is still possible that further upside wave progression will develop soon. The confirmation of this scenario comes with the new high above the level of $51.67 done. Otherwise, the market will start to evolve into more complex and time-consuming corrective cycle.

Support/Resistance:
42.00 - WS3
43.00 - Technical Support
44.37 - WS2
45.70 - WS1
45.83 - Intraday Support
48.16 - Weekly Pivot
49.57 - WR1
50.58 - Intraday Resistance
51.67 - Local Top
51.95 - WR2

Trading recommendations:
As long as the level of 45.83 is not clearly violated, the traders should consider opening buy orders, especially during the market internal corrective cycles*.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. 

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Monday, 27 June 2016

DAX30 Daily Analysis After Brexit










General overview for 27/06/2016:

The corrective structure of wave C is getting now clearer as it was before. The market is moving below the 55,100 and 200 DMA and even recently it gapped down to the level of 9400 points. This gap will be a very important technical resistance for bulls from now on. Nevertheless, the bearish view for this market anticipates another impulsive wave development to the downside with a potential target at the level of 7777 points. This downside wave is a part of an irregular flat correction, so it should develop in five impulsive sub-waves.

Support/Resistance:

7777 - Target Projection For Wave C
8689 - Technical Support
9155 - Brexit Low
9075 - 10085 - GAP
10521 - Wave B Top

Trading recommendations:

Swing traders should consider opening sell orders from current market levels with SL just above the GAP zone. The potential target should be set at the level of 8689 and then at 7777*.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. 




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Tuesday, 21 June 2016

GBP/USD Daily and H4 Pre-Referendum Analysis









General overview for 21/06/2016:

It looks like one the market needs only a slight push towards the level of 1.4861 in order to complete the wave Y of the overall corrective cycle in wave 4. Just above this level there is an impulsive black count invalidation line at 1.5100. Any violation of this line would indicate, that wave C of the pink count is in progress and it will easily reach the level of 1.6000 in no time. But if the market reverses downside after completing the wave 4, then the GAP zone will be filled rather soon and new low, below the level of 1.3833 will be made as well.

Support/Resistance:

1.4012 - Wave X Low
1.4231 - WS1
1.4348 - Weekly Pivot
1.4385 - 1.4433 - Gap Zone
1.4687 - WR1
1.4796 - Technical Resistance
1.4824 - WR2
1.4861 - 61%Fibo of the last Swing
1.5100 - Black Impulsive Count Invalidation Level

Trading recommendations:

There is still on more wave to the downside missing and the technical outlook is BEARISH. All SL orders for bears should be placed just above the level of 1.5100 *.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. .




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Wednesday, 8 June 2016

EUR/GBP H4, Daily & Weekly Analysis










General overview for 08/06/2016:
The current wave development can be monitored on long and short time frames and all of them present a great opportunity to trade. Let's start with the wave development overview at the weekly time frame. We can clearly see the top of the wave 1/A at the level of 0.9800 and then a complex and time consuming downward wave development in a choppy, corrective shape. This corrective pattern had been labeled as waves WXY and it had possibly terminated at the level of 0.6935 in June last year. From that low, a clear five wave impulsive pattern can be distinguished that constitutes wave 1. It stopped at the level of 0.7493, which is now an invalidation level for the overall bullish impulsive progression. On a daily time frame we can see the market had made the wave 4 bottom at the level of 200 DMA at 0.7561 and since then another impulsive wave has developed - wave 1. This wave has topped just below the big supply zone between the levels of 0.7928 - 0.7989, so it still trades inside of the neutral zone. On even a lower time frame, like 4H, the corrective structure to the downside might be finished, but there is still a possibility for a more complex a time-consuming structure will develop if the level of 0.7842 is not clearly violated. Then the market might retrace even deeper towards the level of 0.7694 in order to complete more complex ABC corrective cycle.
Nevertheless, the overall outlook is still slightly bullish in the long term. This assumption is valid as long as the level of 0.6934 is not violated.

Support/Resistance:
0.6934 - Long-Term Swing Low
0.7494 - Green Impulsive Count Invalidation Level
0.7564 - Wave 4 Low
0.7843 - Wave B High
0.7904 - Wave 1 Top
0.7922 - 0.7989 - Supply Zone

Trading recommendations:
Swing traders:
All long term swing BUY orders should be kept open with the SL below the level of 0.6933.
All long term swing SELL orders should be closed if the level of 0.8116 is violated.
Daytraders:
All BUY orders should be still kept open as long as the level of 0.7565 is violated. More BUY  orders can be added if the level of 0.7842 is broken*.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. 




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Monday, 6 June 2016

GBP/USD Daily Analysis









General overview for 06/06/2016:
The 200DMA had capped the bull rally again as the potential top for the wave 4 has been established at the level of 1.4772.  The first  wave to the downside (1) had been made already as well and the wave (2) did not break out above the wave (1) beginning, so the labeling is still correct. Currently, the market is bouncing up from the 100 and 50 DAM support, but the Elliott wave count suggests a sharp decline towards the level of 1.3900 should develop soon.  Nevertheless, the key zone is still the area between the levels of 1.4668 - 1.4772 and as long as the market trades beneath this zone the bears are in control over this market.

Support/Resistance:
1.3833 - Local Low
1.4076 - Wave X Low
1.4668 - 1.4776 - Key Supply Zone
1.5102 - Black Impulsive Count Invalidation Level

Trading recommendations:
As long as the market trades below the key supply zone only the sell orders should be open with SL just above the level of 1.4772*.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. 



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Thursday, 2 June 2016

EUR/USD H1 Analysis Update









General overview for 02/06/2016:

The previous count that can be seen here had been invalidated due to wave i and wave iv overlaps. I've been counting the wave v to the downside will appear and then the market will start the corrective cycle to the upside, but it turned out the wave v had been terminated sooner than expected.
Anyway, the market has hit the 23%Fibo at the level of 1.1220 and this top might be considered at the wave 2 in the alternative count. Nevertheless,  the current main count, however, indicates the level of 1.1220 to be the top only for wave (a) of the overall correction as it LOOKS TOO SHALLOW for now. If this is really the top for the wave (a), then we should see a VERY SUDDEN IMPULSIVE SELL-OFF in wave 3, breaking the recent low at the level of 1.1097. A lack of such a wave development will possibly result in CORRECTIVE WAVE (b) progression down to the level of 1.1175 and then another rally upward towards 38%Fibo at the level of 1.1297.

Support/Resistance:

1.1354 - 50%Fibo
1.1297 - 38%Fibo
1.1282 - 1.1291 - Technical Resistance Zone 1
1.1242 - 1.1255 - Technical Resistance Zone 2
1.1220 - 23%Fibo
1.1175 - Key Level
1.1097 - Swing Low

Trading recommendations:

All swing sell orders should now be closed as the market is now in the corrective cycle. Stay aside and watch the market reaction to the level of 1.1175 before making any trading decision*.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. 


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Wednesday, 1 June 2016

Crude Oil Weekly and Daily Analysis









General overview for 01/06/2016:

The main count at the weekly time frame indicates the wave C had ended with five waves downward rally at the level of $26.02. This low is the bottom for bigger cycle wave X as well, so according to the weekly Elliott wave count, there is one more wave to the upside needed to complete the cycle in big wave B. Moreover, a clear Reversed Head & Shoulders pattern at the bottom is visible, together with a clear breakout above the neckline. Moreover, at the daily time frame, the bulls had been capped just below the important key level at $51 ( psychological level of fifty dollars per barrel) and only a strong, impulsive rally to the upside might prevent the bearish wave progression to unfold, especially below the level of 42.55. Currently, $51 and 42.55 are the two most important levels for market participants.

Support/Resistance:

26.02 - Long Term Swing Bottom
34.90 - Technical Support
42.55 - Alternative Impulsive Count Invalidation Level
50.00 - Psychological Round Number
50.97 - Technical Resistance | Key Level for Bulls|

Trading Recommendations:

All swing traders should trail their buy orders and move the SL just below the 42.55 level. Adding to the existing buy orders is possible only if the level of 51,00 is clearly, impulsively violated.




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