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Monday, 30 May 2016

EUR/USD H1 and H4 Analysis










General overview for 30/05/2016:

Despite the fact that the top for the wave 4 might be in place already, on the higher time frames, like daily and weekly, the market is still trading inside of a triangle pattern. This is why I use the alternative count, to indicate a possible wave D of the triangle to still be in progress. The main impulsive count is the continuation of the idea that the top is in place at the level of 1.1615 and now the market is in the impulsive wave development of the wave 5.

Support/Resistance:

1.1173 - Internal Sub-Cycle Invalidation Level
1.1216 - Wave 4 High | Technical Resistance|
1.1242 - 1.1255 - Supply Zone 1
1.1282 - 1.1293 - Supply Zone 2

Trading recommendations:

All sell orders should move the SL just above the level of 1.1173 and lock the profits: the wave 5 might be about to complete. The next corrective cycle is due now, so all bearish biased traders should wait for the correction to complete and then open sell orders again.




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Tuesday, 24 May 2016

USD/CHF H1 Analysis









General overview for 24.05.2016:

There is almost a classical impulsive wave development at the intraday time frame on this pair.

The impulsive wave progression to the upside hasn't been completed yet as there is at least one more wave to the upside missing. The current projected target is zone between the levels of 0.9952 - 0.9975. When this zone is hit, then larger degree corrective cycle should develop, possibly in the shape of a triangle pattern.  Please notice, that any violation of the level of 0.9761 will invalidate the impulsive scenario.

Support/Resistance:
0.9443 - Swing Low
0.9692 - WS2
0.9813 - WS1
0.9866 - Weekly Pivot
0.9952 - 0.9975 - Projected Target Zone for Wave (v) of Wave 3

Trading recommendations:
All bulls should consider to partially close the buy orders due to the corrective cycle of a higher degree coming soon. Nevertheless, as long as the level of 0.9761 is not violated, buying the dips is the way to trade this market now.


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Monday, 23 May 2016

EUR/USD H4 Analysis









General overview for 23/05/2016:

There are some first indications of a possible impulsive wave development to the downside. The current labeling is valid under one condition: the wave 1 is a Leading Diagonal, so wave 4 can not overlaps the level of 1.1355. Moreover, the five wave impulsive sub - structure looks almost completed and the bullish divergence between the price and the oscillator supports the view. Please notice that the current structure still moves inside of the channel and any break out of the channel will determine the future wave progression.

Support/Resistance:

1.1625 - Swing High
1.1381 - Technical Resistance
1.1141 - Technical Support

Trading recommendations:

All swing traders should keep the sell orders open as the price is trading at the key level. Any break out lower will confirm that the bears have control over the market, but the any upside corrective rally can not violate the level of 1.1355.


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Wednesday, 18 May 2016

Gold XAUUSD Weekly and Daily Analysis










General overview for 18/05/2016:

It is quite possible that a longer term bottom had been established on this market, so we will analyze it in two time frames:
- weekly - this long-term cycle indicates a bottom for the wave 2/B at the level of $1045 and a first bullish impulsive rally towards the resistance at the level of old wave four of the lower degree. The failure is expected here as the lower time frames trend is mature and corrective cycle towards the level of 75 - $1180 is expected. When this correction is completed, another impulsive rally should develop towards the level of $1566.
- daily - the impulsive structure looks mature and it can terminate any time soon as there is only one wave to the upside missing to complete the structure. When the last wave (v) in form of an Expanding Ending Diagonal structure is completed, then a cocorrectiveycle towards the level of $1180 is ananticipated

Support/Resistance:

1307.50 - Local Top
1180.00 - 1175.00 - Projected Target Area For Wave 2/B
1045.25 - Long Term Cycle Support

Trading recommendations:

All buy orders shshouldow be closed as the trend is mature and might reverse soon. Nevertheless, swing traders shshouldonsider to buy the dips as the market will be in the corrective cycle towards the level of $1180, with the SL below the level of $1045 and TP open for now.



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Tuesday, 17 May 2016

USD/JPY H4 Analysis









General overview for 17/05/2016:

The long-term low might had been established at the level of 105.53 and this bottom has been labeled as big wave 2. Nevertheless, the corrective structure in this wave 2 is now in a shape of an irregular flat, so it can evolve to more complex and time consuming pattern. On the  lower time frames, like 4H, we can see a completed impulsive structure, but there is still a chance the top at the level of 109.56 is a wave (iii) top, not wave (v). Anyway, the corrective sub-cycle is due and as long as the level of 105.53 is not violated, the higher prices are expected.

Support/Resistance:

105.06 - WS3
105.53 - Wave 2 Low | Purple Count Invalidation Level |
106.10 - WS2
107.45 - WS1
107.96 - 38%Fibo
108.20 - Intraday Support
108.50 - Weekly Pivot
109.44 - Intraday Resistance | 61%Fibo|
109.88 - WR1
110.94 - WR2

Trading recommendations:

Swing traders should consider to establish a medium-to-long term buy orders that should be accumulated inside of the yellow neutral zone. The SL for all orders should be placed below the level of 105.53 (invalidation level) and TP open for now. If the count is correct, we expect a larger time frame bullish cycle to resume shortly.


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Wednesday, 11 May 2016

USD/MXN H1 Intraday Analysis









General overview for 11/05/2016:

The corrective structure on the USD/MXN hourly time frame does not looks completed yet and the possibilities for one more leg down are high. As long as the local top for the wave 5 at the level of 18.216 is not violated, the market can still slide lower to the level of 17.807  or even to 17.623 before the uptrend will continue. Please notice this is only a simple corrective cycle possibility, but the corrective cycle might evolve into more complex and time consuming one as well.

Support/Resistance:

18.216 - Swing High
17.807 - Technical Support
17.767 - 35%Fibo
17.630 - 50%Fibo
17.623 - Technical Support

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should consider to open sell orders from the current market levels with SL above the level of 18.216 and TP at the level of 17.807 with possible extension towards the level of 17.623.



Monday, 9 May 2016

AUD/JPY H4 Analysis








General overview for 09/05/2016:

After the five wave impulsive structure in wave 1 the three wave zig-zag correction has occurred and it looks completed as well. That means, an impulsive rebound is expected towards the key technical resistance first in this market ( levels 82.46- 82.72). So as long as the level of 77.58 is not violated, we can still expect at least some correction to the upside ( but the impulsive wave structure is more likely to happen). Please notice that the bullish divergence supports this view, but first the key intraday resistance at the level of 79.50 must be violated and bullish  follow through must happen as well to confirm a valid bullish break out. Otherwise, the corrective cycle in wave (iv) will continue  or wave 2 will be more complex and time consuming than a simple zig-zag.

Support/Resistance:
77.58 - Swing Low | Invalidation Level |
79.50 - Key Intraday Level
79.56 - Weekly Pivot
80.66 - 81.12 - Demand Breakthrough Zone
80.83 - WR1
81.95 - Overshoot Resistance
82.46 - 82.74 - Key Technical Resistance
83.26 - WR2
84.62 - WR3

Trading recommendations:
All traders should consider to open buy orders with SL below the level of 77.58 and TP1 at the level of 81.12 and TP2 at the level of 82.46.



Friday, 6 May 2016

EUR/USD H4, Daily and Weekly Analysis









General overview for 06/05/2016:

Two possible scenario are available here to consider:
- Impulsive Decline Scenario - indicates the possible top of the wave 4 at the level of 1.1615 - in this case we should see a five wave development towards the level  of 1.0824, break out lower towards 1.05555 and then new lows with projected target around 1.0166.
- Corrective Pattern Continuation Scenario - indicates only a top for wave C at the level of 1.1615 of the overall big triangle formation in wave 4 - in this case we should see a three wave move, possibly in a shape of a zig-zag with target around the level of 1.0555 (wave alt: D) and the a rebound and another three wave leg up towards the level of 1.1500 (wave alt: E ). This is the level for the triangle to be terminated and impulsive decline starting point.

Support/Resistance:

1.0000 - EUR/USD Parity Level
1.0166 - Min. Target Projection for Wave 5
1.0438 - Weekly Technical Support
1.0827 - Daily Techncial Support
1.1216 - Daily Technical Support
1.1465 - Daily Technical Resistnace
1.1615 - Wave 4 High
1.1719 - Weekly Technical Resistnace
1.1719 - 1.1530 - Weekly Supply Zone

Trading recommendations:

The swingtraders should consider to open the sell orders from current price levels with SL above the recent swing high at the level of 1.1615 and TP open for now. Nevertheless, the most important intraday  technical support is at the level of 1.1211 and as long as it is not broken, bulls are in control over this market.










 
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