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Monday, 22 February 2016

GBP/USD H4 Analysis









General overview for 22/02/2016:

The impulsive  wave progression to the downside does not looks completed yet and more lows are expected in this par. The black line is the invalidation line for the black sub-cycle in wave (iii) and green line is the invalidation lie for the overall green impulsive cycle. There are two things worth to mention:
- please notice the corrective cycle in wave (iv) might retrace as high as the bottom for the wave (i) and the count will be still correct as the Ending Diagonal
- please notice the visible bullish divergence on H4 chart supports the view that there is a time for the corrective bounce in wave (iv) before wave (v) will unfold

Support/Resistance:

1.4056 - WS2
1.415 1- WS1
1.4245 - Black count invalidation level
1.4344 - Weekly Pivot
1.4353 - Green count invalidation level
1.445 1- WR1

Trading recommendations:
Sell orders should be placed carefully as the market might start the (iv) wave correction any time now. Nevertheless, in longer perspective, one more low is needed to complete the structure.




Friday, 19 February 2016

Zaproszenie na FxCuffs 2016


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Już za 20 dni (11-12 Marca 2016) odbędzie się największy kongres inwestycyjny w Europie Środkowo-Wschodniej: FxCuffs.
FxCuffs to pierwsze w Polsce, obiektywne nagrody w segmencie rynku walutowego Forex. Do Ice Kraków Kongres Centre przybędzie ponad 2000 uczestników, 40 wystawców a prelegenci przedstawią 20 godzin wykładów.
Wśród gości specjalnych tegorocznego kongresu jest dwóch prelegentów, na których chciałbym zwrócić szczególna uwagę:
Michael Madden, CMT, CFTe, MSTA, CEWA –  założyciel Elliott Wave International i vice-szef Stowarzyszenia Techników Rynku (oddział Irlandia). Przedstawi on wykład pt: "US Dollar, Euro & more -  Elliott wave look at your best opportunietes. Rozwinięciem tematyki będą praktyczne warsztaty pod tytułem "How to maximize your forex trading sucess using the Elliott wave model" (rejestracja).
Scott Carney - prezes i założyciel firmy HarmonicTrader.com, jeden z pionierów i najważniejszych przedstawicieli szkoły tradingu harmonicznego (z ang. harmonic trading). Należy on do najlepszych analityków technicznych i traderów na świecie. Przedstawi on wykład pt: "Praktyczne zastosowanie tradingu harmonicznego" (rejestracja). 
To tylko dwa wydarzenia, które wybrałem  z całego spektrum innych, ciekawych prelekcji w czasie trwania FxCuffs, ze względu na to, że  najbardziej zbliżone z tematyką bloga.  
Na uwagę na pewno zasługuje jeszcze wykład Jacka Kubraka z pogranicza psychologii i tradingu pt:" Cool Trader Mind - Święty Grall Tradingu" oraz jedyny trading na żywo (charytatywny) w wykonaniu Rafała Zaorskiego
Na koniec chciałbym przypomnieć, że blog ElliottFXFtrader jest nominowany do nagrody w kategorii "Blog Roku".
Nie wiem jak wy, czytelnicy bloga, ale ja się nie mogę doczekać 
Do zobaczenia na FxCuffs!
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Wednesday, 17 February 2016

Hang Seng Multi Year Time Frame Analysis









General overview for 17/02/2017:

Multi-Year view according to Elliott wave principle:
From 1968 the Hang Seng Index is in bullish cycle, where the wave III of the cycle had been done. Since 2008 the index is in corrective structure that can develops into two possible formations:
- ABC red  - three wave simple corrective structure (ie. irregular flat or any other kind of simple correction)
- ABCDE red - triangle shaped pattern that is typical for wave four



Weekly time frame view:
Two of the corrective waves are completed: wave A red and wave B red. Currently the market develops wave C red to the downside, which might be the last wave in the cycle and then the correction will be completed.




Daily time frame view:
The inside of the wave progression reveals at least two possible counts: main and alternative:
- main count - WXY complex corrective pattern - this cycle might have bottomed at the 61%Fibo extension of wave W at the level of 18211. This might be the bottom for the wave A of a higher degree. If it is so, then the market should rebound in corrective  fashion to the upside ( choppiness, overlaps, false breakouts) to complete the wave B black. On the other hand, the corrective wave A might evolve into WXYXXZ pattern that targets the level of 15055 as a bottom for wave A black. In that case, the wave XX should not trade above the level of 23413.



- alternative count - 1-2, (1)-(2), (i)-(ii) impulsive pattern - this cycle shows a possible five wave downside progression in wave C red as a last wave in the overall ABC correction in wave IV. Any break out above the level of 21012 will invalidate this count.




Support/Resistance:
15055 - Projected Target for Wave A
18211 - 61%Fibo extension|Local Low|
20206 - Technical Resistance
21012 - Blue Impulsive Count Invalidation Level
23413 - Brown Impulsive Count invalidation Level

Trading recommendations:
Bearish biased swingtraders should keep the sell orders opened as long as the level of 20206 provides the resistance and the level of 21012 is the line in the sand for them. Nevertheless, the outlook for the medium term traders is still bearish as the corrective cycle in the wave IV hasn't been completed yet.

Thursday, 4 February 2016

EUR/USD H4 Analysis










General overview for 04/02/2016:

The recent analysis of EUR/USD pair had pointed out a possible upside breakout from the triangle-shaped congestion zone to one of the projected target levels. The corrective structure were a little bit longer than anticipated, nevertheless, the breakout direction was still correct. The analysis can be seen here: http://www.elliottfxtrader.com/2016/01/eurusd-h4-analysis.html



Currently, the second projected target zone has been hit and it looks like after the five upward impulsive waves the cycle is completed and now the correction should take place. We cam see on H4 time frame chart the diminishing momentum between wave a top and wave c top, one can even suggest the bearish divergence. Nevertheless, the larger structure cycle still does not look completed as only wave A had been made. Therefore, some corrective cycle should be expected now ( ideally the level of 1.1060 should be tested) and one more wave to the upside is still being anticipated.


Now,  this last picture is somewhat brave and non-ordinary count on daily chart that just caught my mind. If we look at the larger time frame, we can still see the corrective cycle is completed ( wave 4 top after the big triangle is done) and then there is impulsive decline to the downside that is truncated ( fifth wave truncation, wave 5). If it is so, then the bottom for a large cycle wave C and B is in place and current wave progression to the upside is the beginning of a very large degree cycle upward that will go above the top of the level of  1.6053, possibly in an impulsive fashion. The first confirmation will come with the demand breakthrough zone is violated (1.1261 - 1.1310), then wave 4 top is violated (1.1497) and then the   level of 1.1740 breakout in impulsive style should happen. On the other side, this scenario will be invalidated if 1.0700 and head towards longer-term support at the level of 1.0455. 


 
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