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Tuesday, 26 January 2016

DAX H4 and Daily Analysis









General overview for 26/01/2016:
The recent price movement on DAX looks corrective as many overlapping sub-waves are present on H4 time frame. The best labeling for the current structure is a form of a corrective (a)(b)(c) pattern that might be a part of the wave B. In that case there is still missing one more wave to the upside, wave C. The nearest target for this wave would be the gap zone between the levels of 10525 - 10689. Nevertheless, in case of any breakout higher the next target is at the level of previous wave A top  at 11432.

Support/Resistance:
9112 - WS2
9253 - Local Low
9547 - WS1
9685 - Weekly Pivot
10124 - WR1
10279 - WR2
10525 - 10689 - Gap
10718 - WR3

Trading recommendations:
Choppy trading conditions ahead, but daytraders should consider to open buy orders with SL
below the level of 9253 and TP at the level of 10525 min.

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Wednesday, 20 January 2016

USD/CAD H4,Daily, Weekly and Monthly Analysis










General overview for 20/01/2016:
The long term and short term Elliott wave count of this pair had been updated. The current scenarios are still bullish and so far there are no indications of a possible up trend reversal. Moreover, the current wave developments is still bullish as there are uncompleted sub-cycle waves to the upside.
- on the Monthly time frame we can see the big pink cycle labeling as 1 or A and 2 or B. The reason for that is because there is still unclear whether the current long term progression is a part of a big cycle wave (B) in form of three ABC pink waves, OR whether this is an impulsive pattern to the upside that will take out the recent long-term top at the level of 1.6176. Nevertheless, there is still wave 4 missing and one more high should be made soon (targets to be determined when wave 4 low is in place).
- on the Weekly time frame situation is very similar as we can see the grey rectangle demand zone is the long term support for this pair. Only a clear violation of this level would reverse the long term trend.
- on the Daily time frame there is a projected target for the wave 3 at the level of 1.4956. Still no bearish divergence
- on the H4 time frame the momentum is diverging as the price is breaking above the dashed channel. This might be a firs indication the lower time frame cycle are mature
- on the H1 time frame there is a target projection for the immediate wave (3) . Nevertheless, still one more wave to the upside is expected.

Support/Resistance:
1.4835 - WR1
1.4755 - Wave (3) Target Projection
1.4603 - Intraday Support
1.4445 - Weekly Pivot

Trading recommendations:
Swingtraders should still keep the open buy orders as there are uncompleted upside waves in this market and there is no signs of a trend reversal (yet).

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Tuesday, 19 January 2016

GBP/USD H4 and Daily Analysis









General overview for 19/01/2016:

(the previous analysis of this pair might be seen here)

The impulsive wave progression to the downside has not been completed yet as there are
some sub-waves missing. In order to complete the cycle, the market must make the corrective
 cycle labeled as wave iv and then move below the last local low at the level of 1.4234. Please
 notice that even this lower breakout will not terminate the impulsive wave progression - it will
be only the  wave (iii) bottom. There is still a room for a further lower prices and downside
pressure will persist.

Support/Resistance:

1.4083 - WS1
1.4234 - Local Swing Low
1.4344 - Weekly Pivot
1.4436 - WR1
1.4473 - Wave iv Target Projection
1.4694 - WR2


Trading recommendations:

Swingtraders should keep the sell orders open as the down trend has not been completed yet.


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Friday, 15 January 2016

EUR/USD H4 Analysis









General overview for 15/01/2016:

There are still two different scenarios possible for this pair, both of them have clearly defined invalidation levels:
- scenario one - main green impulsive count - still sees a possible top for the wave 4 green to be finally set, but it must happen below the level of 1.1086. Any breakout higher invalidates the impulsive downside count
- scenario two  - alternative purple count - will get in charge when the level of 1.1086 is violated
as a part of an ENDING DIAGONAL wave 5 pink of a larger cycle
There are three different levels where the wave 2 purple might be terminated. The projected target levels depends on the form of the pattern in the last stage of the corrective cycle which is hard to
say at the present moment. The wave 5 pink target projection is around the parity level +-100 pips.

Support/Resistance:

1.4000 - 1.3767 - Target 3
1.1277 - 1.1226 - Target 2
1.1162 - 1.1116 - Target 1
1.1086 - Invalidation Level

Trading recommendations:

The daytraders and swingtraders should consider to open sell orders from the orange rectangle
zones with SL just above the higher zone boundary and wait for the trend reversal confirmation
 ( i.e.: candlestick formation, MA crossover, etc).

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Thursday, 14 January 2016

USD/RUR (Russian Ruble) Daily Analysis











General overview for 14/01/2016:

The previous analysis of this pair might  be found here.

After making the corrective cycle bottom at the level of 60.37 and finishing the triangle
pattern in wave 4, the #USDRUB pair has started the impulsive advance to the upside to
complete the wave 5 black. Currently there are two possible scenarios  for this progression,
both are BULLISH:
 - the first  scenario (main count)  indicates a possible termination of the impulsive cycle around
the level of 79-80 due to the building bearish divergence between the price and momentum
indicator
- the second scenario (alt. count)  indicates a possible extension in wave three of the five wave impulsive cycle and new higher high in this pair might be easy accomplished. Breakout below
the level of 71.16 will be first clue this scenario is invalidated.


Support/Resistance:
79.51 - Swing High
75.38 - Immediate Support
71.16 - Technical Support

Trading recommendations:
Swing traders should watch this pair carefully as the uptrend might terminate any time soon.
Targets for the long term buy orders should be placed around the last swing high level and then trailing stop loss orders should be used.

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Wednesday, 13 January 2016

GBP/AUD Daily and Weekly Analysis









General overview for 13/01/2016:

There are two possible counts here, both of them are BULLISH and the difference is in the
placement of the wave 3 top:
- on the Weekly time frame chart we can see the impulsive wave progression had been
 rejected just above the 61%Fibo of the previous swing and it had been labeled as the
top for the wave 3. Currently the market is in the corrective cycle wave 4 that looks finished
 ( details on the Daily chart).
- on the Daily time frame the count is slightly different than the Weekly, the difference
 is in the labeling of the impulsive upward cycle. Nevertheless, the market has made the
 corrective cycle in wave (4) and now it is ready to trade higher again. The most important
 level for the blue impulsive count is 2.0177 ( blue impulsive count invalidation level )
and the level of 2.0028 ( black impulsive count invalidation level).
The projected wave progression is still to the upside and it should develop in impulsive
fashion.
The top for the wave (5) should be min. at the level of 2.2403.

Support/Resistance:
2.0028 - black impulsive count invalidation level
2.0177 - blue impulsive count invalidation level
2.1215 - technical resistance
2.1708 - technical resistance

Trading recommendations:
Swing traders should consider to open long-to-mid term buy orders with SL below the level
of 2.0177 and TP at the level of 2.2403.

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Monday, 11 January 2016

USD/PLN Daily Analysis









General overview for 11/01/2016:

(the previous analysis of this pair might be seen here)

The impulsive wave progression to the upside has not been completed yet as there
is missing wave 5 blue to the upside. The projected level for wave 5 blue termination
is at the level of 4.1770. Nevertheless, the most important sub-cycle zone is the orange
area between the levels of 3.9291 - 3.9119 as any violation of this zone might lead to
 bullish count invalidation.

Support/Resistance:
4.1770 - Wave 5 Target Projection
4.0592 - Alternative Count Invalidation Level
3.9673 - Technical Support
3.9291 - 3.9119 - Internal Sub-Cycle Invalidation Level
3.8238 - Bullish Count Invalidation Level

Trading recommendations:
Swingtraders should keep the buy orders still open as there is at least one more high above
the level of 4.0592 coming any time soon.

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