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Monday, 23 November 2015

SP500 H4 Analysis









General and macro overview for 23/11/2015:

Thursday's  report provided the number of initial jobless claims in the US, which continued to hover near the lowest level in the fourth decades. Initial claims dropped by 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 271,000 , while market participants expected a number of 272,000. Claims remained below the level of 300,000 for the 37th straight week, the longest stretch in years. Another good US employment data (after the mind blowing NFP figures last Friday) has shown enough signs of resilience to allow the data-dependent Fed's policy makers to seriously consider raising rates for the first time in almost a decade very. According to the Fed Funds futures, a December rate hike is now 72% priced in.

From the technical point of view the current Elliott wave progression looks uncompleted as there is one more wave to the upside missing. The current structure might be an ongoing triangle structure in progress with the low of the wave A to be in place already and now a possible top in wave B is played by the market participants. Nevertheless, any breakout higher above 2110 level would suggest that the main count will unfold ( impulsive wave 5 blue development).

Support/Resistnace:
2131 - WR1
2110 - Wave 1 Top
2067 - Weekly Pivot
2039 - WS1
2000 - Round Number
1971 - WS2
1958 - 1981 - Supply Breakthrough Zone

Trading recommendations:
DAYTRADERS: Short- term sell orders should be in play as long as the level of 2110 is not clearly violated.
SWINGTRADERS:The longer term trend is still bullish so buying the dip down to the level of 1812 is the way to trade this market.


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