{lang: 'en-US'} November 2015 ~ ElliottFxTrader Blog

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Friday, 27 November 2015

USD/TRY H4 Analysis










General overview for 27/11/2015:

Short term perspective: The wave B green of the Zig-Zag corrective cycle is almost completed
 and then short-term immediate down trend should resume. Please notice that the grey rectangle
 is the projected target zone for the wave (c) termination. Any breakout higher would mean more
complex and time consuming correction (ie: Double Zig-Zag, Triple Zig-Zag, Mixed).

Support/Resistnace:
3.1238 - 161%Fibo of Big Wave 1 Green
3.0741 - Swing Top
2.9743 - Technical Resistnace
2.9612 - 61%Fibo
2.9231 - 50%Fibo
2.8150 - Golden Trend Line Dynamic Support
2.7783 - Wave A Bottom
2.6267 - Min. Target Projection

Trading recommendations:
Daytraders should consider to open sell orders from current market levels with SL above the
level of 2.9800 and TP at the level of 2.7784 min.
Swingtraders should still keep open buy orders as there is no trend reversal just yet.

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Wednesday, 25 November 2015

USD/PLN Daily Analysis









General overview for 25/11/2015:

The impulsive wave development to the upside looks incomplete and higher prices are expected.
Two scenarios are currently in play:
- scenario one - main count - suggest more upside wave progression as the impulsive structure unfolds with the first projected target at the level of 4.7000. Nevertheless, any breakout below
the level of 3.8368 will invalidate the current impulsive scenario and make alternative labeling
in charge.
- scenario two - alternative count - indicates an incomplete  ABC corrective cycle. Any breakout below the level of 3.8368 will invalidate the current impulsive scenario and make alternative
 labeling in charge.

Support/Resistance:
4.7455 - Last Major Swing High from year 2000
4.0000 - Round Number Support
3.9673 - Wave 1 High
3.8368 - Invalidation Level

Trading recommendations:
Swingtraders that still keep the buy orders open should move the SL to the level of 3.9672 and
 wait for another higher high to come. Please notice the bearish divergence suggest an internal corrective  sub-cycle is coming soon.

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Monday, 23 November 2015

SP500 H4 Analysis









General and macro overview for 23/11/2015:

Thursday's  report provided the number of initial jobless claims in the US, which continued to hover near the lowest level in the fourth decades. Initial claims dropped by 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 271,000 , while market participants expected a number of 272,000. Claims remained below the level of 300,000 for the 37th straight week, the longest stretch in years. Another good US employment data (after the mind blowing NFP figures last Friday) has shown enough signs of resilience to allow the data-dependent Fed's policy makers to seriously consider raising rates for the first time in almost a decade very. According to the Fed Funds futures, a December rate hike is now 72% priced in.

From the technical point of view the current Elliott wave progression looks uncompleted as there is one more wave to the upside missing. The current structure might be an ongoing triangle structure in progress with the low of the wave A to be in place already and now a possible top in wave B is played by the market participants. Nevertheless, any breakout higher above 2110 level would suggest that the main count will unfold ( impulsive wave 5 blue development).

Support/Resistnace:
2131 - WR1
2110 - Wave 1 Top
2067 - Weekly Pivot
2039 - WS1
2000 - Round Number
1971 - WS2
1958 - 1981 - Supply Breakthrough Zone

Trading recommendations:
DAYTRADERS: Short- term sell orders should be in play as long as the level of 2110 is not clearly violated.
SWINGTRADERS:The longer term trend is still bullish so buying the dip down to the level of 1812 is the way to trade this market.


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Thursday, 19 November 2015

DAX H4 Analysis









General overview for 19/11/2015:

There is still much confusion on lower time frames and one of my counts still points out a possible new all time high on this index. Nevertheless, the current wave progression on lower time frame looks like a typical five waves impulsive structure that is almost completed. There is one more push higher needed to terminate the structure, possibly filling the gap between the levels of 11195 - 11275 and corrective cycle lower would be anticipated then.

Support/Resistance:
11195 - 11275 - GAP
11195 - WR3
11095 - WR2
10795 - Weekly Pivot

Trading recommendations:
Sell limit orders should be placed in the gap zone with tight SL and TP at the level of 10500.


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Wednesday, 18 November 2015

EUR/USD H1 Pre-FOMC Analysis









General and macro overview for 18/11/2015: 

The FOMC meeting minutes are scheduled for release at 7:00 pm GMT and are the most expected macroeconomic event for today as they may cast some light on the central bank's intentions in December. The latest statement was far more hawkish than the markets had anticipated and it send quite a clear message about a possible short-term interest rate hike this year in December. Two weeks after, the NFP report beat all expectations, which satisfied Fed policy makers for sure. Today's Fed minutes might reveal how strong the rate hike consensus is among policy makers as the December rate hike has gone from 35% chances before last months statement to 64% chances now.

The EUR/USD pair is still trading inside of the weekly range, however there are some signs that a possible impulsive wave progression to the downside had begun already. The current  counts indicates a possible wave 3 green target projection and then a corrective re-bound towards the level of 1.0833. If this level is violated, it might mean, the wave D black of the triangle had been completed and now wave E black is in progress. If this level is capped then a possible wave 4 green top would be in place and downside trend continuation is anticipated.

Support/Resistance:
1.0588 - 1.0578 - Projected Target Zone for Wave 3 Green (higher cycle)
1.0588 - WS2
1.0630 -  Wave iii Bottom
1.0660 - WS1
1.0743 - Weekly Pivot
1.0751 - Wave iv Top
1.0812 - WR1
1.0833 - Wave 4 Purple Top (lower cycle)

Trading recommendations:
Traders should place buy limit orders at the level of 1.0588 with tight SL and TP open for now ( for longer term traders TP=1.0833).


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Tuesday, 17 November 2015

$DXY US Dollar Index









General overview for 17/11/2015:

The U.S. Dollar still is advancing to higher levels in an extending 1-2, (i)-(ii), 1-2 wave progression to the upside in the last wave up - wave 5.
The expected target for the impulsive wave 3 is around 100.38, where equals 1.618 time the length of the same degree wave 1 and it is just shy of the technical resistance at the level of 100.38. Pleas enotice that the current labeling is showing even more bullish outlook and the target of 100.38 might be easily extended.
Support/Resistance:
100.39 - Techncial Resistance
100.28 - 161%Fibo
99.38 - Technical Support
Trading recommendations:
All buyers should watch the price action around the level of 100.38 as this might be the end of thebig cycle  wave 5, because trend looks mature now.
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If You want to directly copy my signals, please use this link only to open ProSTP account in ArgusFX and then join Argonaut social trading platform. 
The details about how to join the social trading platform are here: http://www.elliottfxtrader.com/p/argonaut-social-trading.html
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Tuesday, 10 November 2015

GBP/USD H4









General overview for 10/11/2015:

Despite the recent bearish breakout to the downside the current wave development might still evolve into more complex wave 2 green structure in shape of a Running Flat correction. Please notice that any breakout higher above the golden trend line will change the view temporary and breakout above the demand breakthrough zone will change the view permanently and invalidate the green impulsive count.

Support/Resistnace:
1.5512 - 1.5480 - Demand Breakthrough Zone
1.5285 - WR1
1.5155 - Weekly Pivot

Trading recommendations:
Due to the recent fundamental and technical developments selling the rally's up seems to be the best way to trade this market until proven otherwise.


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