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Friday, 18 April 2014

USD/JPY H1

General Overview for 18/04/2014:

There are two different scenarios to be considered here and the count is getting more and more complex and time consuming. The first scenario is a truncation in wave 5 and the overall big impulsive wave to the upside labeled as the wave 1 in blue circle is done. That would mean the current wave progression is a complex corrective pattern in a very big cycle of wave 2 in blue circle. The shape of this correction is currently had to predict but it starts to look as a complex correction as well.
The other alternate count still indicates a possible triangle pattern in wave 4 and a missing wave 5 to the upside BEFORE any meaningfull correction will happen.
On lower time frames, we can see an impulsive wave progression that has been labeled as wave C black or alt:1 purple. Currently the USD/JPY pair is in corrective cycle on lower time frame and a possible target for WXY correction has been marked on chart. Please notice that the corrective cycle might get even more complex and upside corrective cycle might extend higher. First clue that correction is finished is breakout below the level of 101.80 and secondary confirmation comes with the level of 101.50 breakout.

Support/Resistance:
102.71 - Target for wave Y brown
102.64 - WR1
102.39 - Intraday Support
101.98 - Weekly Pivot

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