Join The Community

Search

Saturday, 31 August 2013

Guest Article: US Consumer Sentiment Investigates EUR/USD Fall


US Consumer Sentiment Instigates EUR/USD Fall
Friday’s trading saw the dollar strengthen against the euro, following revised consumer sentiment data as the United States continues its economic improvements.
During US trading, the Eurodollar was at 1.3198, down by 0.32 percent. This follows a low for that session of 1.3174. The high was 1.3255. Technical analysis shows the level of support was likely to be around 1.3166, held from the lowest point of the 25th July. Resistance would be found at 1.3398, the high of just two days earlier.
Revised Sentiment Index
82.0 was the headline figure for the August US consumer sentiment index, issued by Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan. The release for July had been for a figure of 80.0, and the revision had been expected to add just 0.5. The 2.0 increase came as somewhat of a surprise, and certainly had an impact on the Eurodollar’s slide.
Expectations were also high for the Chicago purchasing managers’ index, which had been 52.3 in July. The final figure came in at a strong but expected 53.0.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis also released data on Friday that showed a small increase in consumer spending. July saw a 0.6 percent rise, and 0.3 percent was expected for August, but the figure was only 0.1%. This is one of the more volatile indicators however, and can be heavily influenced by the automotive industry.
As with all recent strong data, the PMIs and CSIs fuelled belief that the Federal Reserve is likely to begin reigning in its $85 billion per month bond buying scheme. Bernanke and co have previously suggested that tapering would not begin until there is further evidence that the recovery is well on track.
The current programme of stimulus has the effect of weakening the dollar, especially against the euro. EUR/USD is likely to be bearish as the prospect of ending the practice increases.
September now looks like the likely month for moderation to begin.
Euro Data
Official Eurozone data was also reasonable, despite the single currency struggling against the dollar.
The consumer price index increased by 1.3 percent in August. Slightly down on July’s figure of 1.6 percent, and predictions of 1.4 percent, but a reasonable level of inflation nonetheless.
The unemployment rate was unchanged as expected, coming in at 12.1 percent. This is one of the major benchmarks for any policy changes, and until it begins to alter, the euro is likely to be quiet.
Major differences between European economies are also contributing to the dollar’s gain. While countries such as the UK and Germany are regularly posting strong performance indicators, the south of the continent is still struggling. The ECB is looking to curb this disparity by maintaining similar banking rules across the Eurozone, but this may no longer be possible.
The continent may have emerged from recession as a whole, but there are still major issues, which will ensure that the dollar continues to strengthen against it. The potential conflict in Syria is also encouraging investors to shift over to the dollar, which is still considered a safe haven.
With tapering on the horizon, and Eurozone data steady, the EUR/USD outlook is bearish. 

Richard Boothroyd

Friday, 30 August 2013

Trading Results for August 2013 in Sigma Square VIP Service


Hello Traders!

Those are the results for all month of August.
Position sizes are various but all trades are swing size trades due to incompability between my Elliott Wave long term counts and the actual market behaviour.
Please notice that summer holidays are rather quiet period on global financial markets and forex so this is why sizes were reduced below the standard or there were no trades at all.

Week from 29.07-02.08.2013                        -20pips     (-0,56% of the account)
Week from 05.08-09.08.2013                         +50pips    ( +1.0% of the account)
Week from 12.08-16.08.2013                         +230pips    ( +1.6% of the account)
Week from 19.08-23.08.2013                         +313pips    ( +1.8% of the account)
Week from 26.08-30.08.2013                         +3169pips    ( +6.5% of the account; +9.21% for August)

Statement for August 2013:




Grand Total since 20.12.2012             
 +10444 pips!                                                            
+207 DAX Points                                                        
+22 SP500 points                                                         
+$49 Gold                                                         
 +115 NatGas                                                       
+110 Nikkei                                                             
+5 Corn                                                           
+1 Soybeans
+2914 GOOGLE
+371 APPLE

Good luck with Your trading and green pips for all!

Regards,
Sebastian Seliga


Tuesday, 27 August 2013

AUD/USD D1, H4



Monday, 26 August 2013

EUR/USD H1 Update

General Overview for 26/08/2013 12:00 CET:
Last impulsive bullish count has been invalidated. it looks like there will be more to the downside in this wave Y of B to finish the correction.
Only a breakout of the golden trend line invalidates the count.
One 2 One measured move level @ 1.3255 is in confuence with 78%Fibo, what makes this level strong support and it is worth to play for intraday scalp.
Support/Resistance on H1:
1.3461 - WR1
1.3451 - Intraday High
1.3413 - 1.3426 - Supply Breakout Zone
1.3307 - WS1
1.3298 - 61%Fibo
1.3259 - 1.3268 - DEMAND ZONE
1.3205 - Swing Low

Trading Recommendations:
Any price below the golden trend line should be sold.
Buying the golden trend line breakout  seems to be a way to trade this pair in case cutrrent outlook is invalidated: If golden trend line is broken, next level is 1.3400
LAST WEEK OF 
30-DAY FREE TRIAL ON WWW.RESISTANCEINVEST.COM 
FOR ALL NEW CLIENTS. 
JOIN NOW!!!



Thursday, 22 August 2013

AUD/USD H4 Ariel







BUY 0.9000 SL 0.8949 TP 0.9200

S/R:
0.9078 Pivot monthly
0.9150 pivot weekly
0.9180-0.92 strong S/R weekly

CLOSE:

Tuesday, 20 August 2013

EUR/USD H1 Update




General Overview for 20/08/2013 on 21:00 CET:
Currently EURUSD has broken above the recent high and actually has hit a new 6 month high.

Immediate impulsive bearish count has been invalidated.

New analysys focuses on more upside wave progression possibility as the larger time frame cycles has not been finished just yet.
As long as 1.3707 holds, the bias is still bearish.

Support/Resistance:
1.3451 - Intraday High
1.3421 - WR1
1.3380 - 1.3400 - Intraday Support Zone
1.3370 - Golden Trend Line Support Zone
1.3330 - 50%Fibo
1.3314 - Weekly Pivot
1.3300 - 61%Fibo

Trading Recommendations:
Buying the golden trend line lows seems to be a way to trade this pair now.
If golden trend line is broken , next level to buy is Weekly pivot area @ 1.3300.

Seb
30-DAY FREE TRIAL ON WWW.RESISTANCEINVEST.COM 
FOR ALL NEW CLIENTS. 
JOIN NOW!!!














Friday, 9 August 2013

Corn Futures Daily Update


This chart has been posted on Sigma Square VIP Service members only area on 22 May 2013.
Please check where the price is now.

30-DAY FREE TRIAL ON WWW.RESISTANCEINVEST.COM 
FOR ALL NEW CLIENTS. 
JOIN NOW!!!


BEFORE:
AFTER:


Thursday, 8 August 2013

CHFPLN Weekly Update

General Overview for 08/08/2013 14:30 CET:

Recent price development urged to change the count due to no impulsive price rection after previous wave 4 low. The new count indicates, that wave 4 is a classical traiangle pattern anr recent range breakout is first wave (i)  to the upside that on Daily chart has been finished and now a correction is due. When corrective wave (ii) will be done, powerfull wave (iii) is just about the corner.


The Key Level is 55 period moving average - the last time price went to this level it was heavily bought.


If Extended Triangle pattern line will be broken, then this would be first clue that low is in.

Support/Resistance:

3.700  - Swing High
3.5500 - Extended Triangle pattern trend line
3.4750 - 100 WMA 
3.4150 - 55 WMA
3.3000 - Wave one low/Bullish count invalidation level
3.2650 - Swing Low

Trading Recommendation:
Buy the dips with SL below 3.300 and POTENTIAL target of 4.100 easy.

Seb


30-DAY FREE TRIAL ON WWW.RESISTANCEINVEST.COM 
FOR ALL NEW CLIENTS. 
JOIN NOW!!!



WIG20 Futures H4 Update

General Overview for 08/08/2013 13:30 CET:
The GAP has been closed and index is moving in impulsive wave progression top the upside.
Wave (iii) of wave iii is almost done and next resistance level is 78%Fibo @ 2410. Price is expected to move a little bit lower in lower degree corrective cycle wave (iv) and then break out to the upside. Target for wave (v) of iii is 2438 min.
As lonf as the Key level holds bias is to the upside.

Support/Resistance:
2571 - WR3
2504 - Swing High
2472 - WR2
2438 - WR1
2410 - 78%Fibo
2340 - Weekly Pivot
2306 - WS1 | KEY LEVEL |
2207 - WS2

Tradinf Recommendation:
As long as KEY LEVEL @ 2306 holds long side of the market should be played with TP @ 2438 min.
30-DAY FREE TRIAL ON WWW.RESISTANCEINVEST.COM 
FOR ALL NEW CLIENTS. 
JOIN NOW!!!


BEFORE:
AFTER:


Wednesday, 7 August 2013

GBPUSD H4 Update

Potential top for wave 2 and Bearish Gartley Formation on chart. 

 Seb

30-DAY FREE TRIAL ON WWW.RESISTANCEINVEST.COM 
FOR ALL NEW CLIENTS. 
JOIN NOW!!!

Tuesday, 6 August 2013

EUR/USD H1 Update

General Overview on 06/08/2013 09:00 CET:
There might be some direrction starting here after abc Irrgular Flat wave (ii) is done: the current wave progression points out the posiibility of a impulsive bearish movement to the downside.
Only a new high invalidates the bearish Outlook, 
Support/Resistance:
1.3360 - WR1
1.3343 - Swing High
1.3310 - 78%Fibo
1.3272 - Weekly Pivot
1.3224 - Intraday Support
1.3187 - Swing Low
1.3163 - 1.3171 - DEMAND AREA
Trading Recommendation:
According to my count: Shorts should be in play but please mind new high will invalidate the count.


EUR/JPY H1 Update


Please follow the link:
https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/33525/

Thank You,
Seb

USD/CAD M30 Update


Please Follow the link:
https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/33523/

Thank You,
Seb

Monday, 5 August 2013

GBP/JPY H4 Update

General Overview on 05/08/2013 22:00 CET:
Please take a look at the old H4 chart so You can see this analysys was spot on.
Currently still two possible counts are in play:
MAIN: Wave B top is in place and price has made wave (i) to the downside. Now it is in corrective cycle with targets for wave (ii) on the chart. New swing high invalidates this count.
ALTERNATE: Wave B was a lower degree wave alt:X top and recen five wave decline was a last leg of wave alt:Y of wave alt:(X) so now there is wave alt:(Y) to the upside to be done. Break below wave A blue invalidates this view.
Support/Resistance:
154.01 - Swing High
153.89 - WR2
152.92 - WR1
152.78 - 78%Fibo
152.15 - Intraday Resistance
151.30 - 151.50 DEMAND BREAKOUT ZONE
150.79 - Weekly Pivot
149.67 - WS1
148.26 - Swing Low
147.32 - WS2
146.43 - WS3
Trading Recommendation:
Sell anyting in  the golden trend line - intraday resistance (151.30 - 152.15) zone  with SL just above the 152.20 level
Seb
30-DAY FREE TRIAL ON WWW.RESISTANCEINVEST.COM 
FOR ALL NEW CLIENTS. 
JOIN NOW!!!



Friday, 2 August 2013

EURJPY H1 Update

Please follow the link:
https://www.instaforex.com/pl/forex_analysis/33391/

Thanks,
Seb

USDCAD H1 Update

Please follow the link:
https://www.instaforex.com/pl/forex_analysis/33397/

Thanks,
Seb

Thursday, 1 August 2013

EUR/JPY H1 & H4 Update

Please follow the link:
https://www.instaforex.com/pl/forex_analysis/33355/

Thank You,
Seb

USD/CAD H1 Update

Please follow the link:
https://www.instaforex.com/pl/forex_analysis/33347/

Thank You!
Seb

 
Don't Forget To Join US Our Community
×
Widget