{lang: 'en-US'} November 2012 ~ ElliottFxTrader Blog

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Friday, 30 November 2012

EUR/USD M30 Update

Still holding longs as the count is not invalidated yet.

Seb


Gold XAUUSD H4 Update

The trade is deep in red but I'm waiting for the trend to resume: the price retraced almost 61% of spike down. Silver retaced all spike down so that might be a clue...

SL did not work after $25/minute spike down...

Seb


GBP/JPY H1 Update + Trading Plan Idea

Rationale:
If this is the beginning of the wave 3 I want ot be in this trade. Waiting for some pullbacks and buying the dips.


Entry: Buy Limit @ 131.48
SL:132.25
TP: min. 133 ( into fibo cluster)

Take care,
Seb



EUR/JPY H1 Update + Trading Plan Idea

Rationale:
My Buy Limit order has never been filled desplite the fact that I have been expecting depper correction into weekly pivot.
Right now this long order from a top is a HEDGE TRADE against EUR/USD that I short. If something goes wrong and EUR/USD will pop higher the at leat this trade on EUR/JPY will cover partial losses and I'm eager to buy more if this is really wave 3 now.

Entry: Buy Market @ 107.57 (unfortunetly on top, oh well...)
SL: Below  Orange rectangle.
TP:?

Take care,
Seb


AUD/USD H4 Update

Just noticed that wave (d) might have finished in only three waves:red ABC where wave C is in three waves as well. If it is so, we now should see somehow more evident bearish pressure to the downside. but so far 50% and 61% provide the support so I will stick with the orginal count idea: wave (d), wave C have not finished the move to the upside just yet.

From this point of view any move below Fibo support makes Bullish development less probable.


Seb


GBP/USD H4 Update

Devil\s currency not giving up.

Seb


EUR/USD M30 Update + Trading Plan Idea

Rationale:
Unclear situation now, two differnet count in play but I'm short after Germany data due to my count showing correction time.
There is one more count on H4 time fram I had posted yesterday. It indicates that this small wave (a) or alt:2 might be just sharp correction wave 4 really and we still have wave 5 to come.
There is another possibility showing that my top of wave 3 from yesterday is really wave (i) of expanding wave 5 and there is more upside to come.
So, I'm going to play short first but if any new hight occours on London open I'm long playing extended wave 5 scenario.

Entry: Sell @ 1.3020
SL: Any new high.

Entry: Buy Market after new high. Any good price.
SL: 20 pips ( or below 1.3000)
TP: 61% of Fibo Extension of wave 3.

Take care,
Seb


Thursday, 29 November 2012

EUR/USD H4 Update (alt count)

Lower time frames does not support this count too much but it is still a possibility.

Crude Oil H4 Update

Rather strange behaviour of Crude Oil: still almost no downside momnetum

Seb


DAX30 Futures H4 Upodate

Are we done yet?

Seb


Silver XAGUSD H4 Update

It looks like one more small wave 5 is missing inside this huge bullish candles to finish wave 5 green and start the corrective wave 4.

Seb



EUR/AUD H4 Update

Looks like bulls are winning the game.

Blue line last chance for bears.

Seb

AUD/USD H4 Update

Buy Limit order has been activated into this Fibo Ret.
Stop is just below wave 4.

Seb


GBP/USD H4 Update

HI, My name is British Pound and I do not know what I want and what I'm doing so please do not trad eme because I'm a devil's currency...


Seb


S&P500 H4 Update

(a)(b)(c) as a corrective wave 2 looks  completed.

Seb


EUR/JPY H1 Update

Still in corrective mode but new high might start the wave 3 to develop and current wave a would be wave 1 then.

Seb




EUR/USD H1 & H4 Update

Last wave up has ended in five impulsive waves: impulse wave 1, abc flat correction wave 2, impulse wave 3, abcde correction wave 4 and ending diagonal wave 5. Then sharp wave (a) in three waves to the downside.
I'm trackin now two possible counts:
1. We are done with big impulsive wave 1 and now is big time correction comming.
2. We are not done with big impulsive wave 1 are this move up was just wave B Zig-Zag.

Line invalidating count is still in play at the end of smaller degree wave 1.

Seb



EUR/USD M30 & H1 Update

Ending diagonal invalidated but we are very close to finish this wave up.
Correction is due.

Seb

EDIT : I know wevae 3 green is kind of small, so I might re-label it as wave 1 of lower degree if price would break to the upside



EUR/JPY H1 Update

First signs of MACD Divergence on H1 TF but momentum still strong.
Watching the previous highs area.

Seb


EUR/USD M30 Update

More buy limit  orders had been set at Fibo retracements levels.

Seb



EUR/USD M30 Update

Bears last hope is this waves up are part of a wave B Zig-Zag.

But they look bullish as hell....


Seb


Silver XAGUSD H4 Update + Trading Plan Idea

Rationale:
Still waiting for wave 5 to complete. Buying dips.

Entry: Buy Limit @ 33.65 (fibo Support)
SL: 33.40
TP: 33.90 min.


Take care,
Seb


S&P500 Futures H4 Update + Trading Plan Idea

Rationale:
Buying into support  in anticipation of futher expansion of wave (c) or 3 to the upside.

Entry: Buy Limit 1407.
SL:1399
TP: 1421 min
R/R: 3:1


Take care,
Seb


AUD/USD H4 Update + Trading Plan Idea

Rationale:
Still expecting final push to the upside as a wave 5.

Entry:
Buy Limit @ 1.0455 (23%FiboRet)
SL:20pips
TP: 1.0500 min.
R/R: 2:1

Take care,
Seb


GBP/USD H4 Update + Trading Plan Idea

Rationale:
Buying dips in anticipation of wave 3.

Entry:
Buy Limit @ 1.6003 (round number, 23%Fibo Ret)

SL: 1.5960 (below the low)
TP: 1.6050 min.


Take care,
Seb


NASDAQ Futures H4 Update

Rationale:
From the yestersday's low of  I see an impulse wave up that can be considered as a wave 1 from the bullish point of view. So right now I'm buyng the dips of this wave  because I expect wave c to the upside to develop.

Entry:
Buy Limit @ 2658.50 (Support)
 SL: 2654
TP: 2690

Take care,
Seb


EUR/JPY H1 Update + Trading Plan Idea

Rationale:

Impilsive wave 1 from yesterday low has not been finished yet so I'm buying the dips in anticipation of wave 5 to the upside. When the big wave 1 will be completed I will buy the dips on the Fibo Retacements  or Pivot Points again in anticipation of strong wave 3 to develop.

Entry:
Buy Limit @ 106.08
SL:105.97 ( below that line bullish count will be invalidated)
TP:106.55 min.

Take care,
Seb


EUR/USD M30 Update + Trading Plan Idea

Rationale:

From the yestersday's low of 1.2880 I see an impulse wave up that can be considered as a wave 1 from the bullish point of view. So right now I'm buyng the dips of wave c because I expect wave 3 to the upside to develop.

Entry:
Buy Market @ 1.2943 (23%FiboRet), Buy Limit 1.2930 (38%FiboRet) and Buy Limit 1.2921 (Weekly Pivot)
SL: below weekly pivot
TP: 1.3000


Take care,
Seb


Wednesday, 28 November 2012

EUR/JPY H1 Update

Still in corrective mode. Not much of an impulse here yet.

Seb


DAX30 Futures H4 Update

Very impulsive count here so it can be only wave (a) or a part of a Zig-Zag.

Seb


Silver XAGUSD H4 Update

Bullish count still not invalidated.

Seb


GBP/JPY H1 Update

Still in corrective mode - Double Three I guess.

Seb


S&P500 Futures H4 Update

Looks like wave (b) is ready and market can make even deeper correction in wave 2.

Seb


Gold XAUUSD H4 Update

My long position are deep in red after $25 candle down in 1min.
I refuse to close this longs for now but below 1700 I'm out.

Seb



AUD/USD H4 Update

My Buy Limit order has been missed by 1 pip.


Seb


GBP/USD H4 Update

Longs still in play: I'm waiting what will happen now.

Seb


EUR/USD H1 Update

My buy limit order ha snot been activated.

Seb


USD/CHF H4 Update + Trade Plan Idea

Rationale:
Shorting wave 4 retracement as this pair needs one more wave to the downside to comple the cycle according to my count.

Entry:
Sell Limit @ 0.9370 (50% FiboRet, Weekly Resistance and former resistance level)
SL: 0.9405 (above 61%FiboRet level my count will be invalidated)
TP: 0.9250 min.
R/R: 4:1

Take care,
Seb


EUR/USD H1 Time Analysys

I whish I hadn't seen  it erlier.

Seb


EUR/USD M30 Update + Trade Plan Idea

Rationale:

Previous wave 4 area in my count might provide nice long opportunity + 38% FiboRet.

Entry:
Buy Limit @ 1.2873
SL:20pips.
TP:1.2940 and beyond ( I wish!)
R/R: min. 2:1

Take care,
Seb


EUR/AUD H4 Update + Trading Plan Idea

Rationale:
Waiting for wave (2) end at one of the retracement levels and buy into dips.

Entry:
Buy Limit @ 1.2340 (50%) and 1.2320 (61%).
SL:1.2299
TP: Above 1.2435 min.

R/R: about 3:1

Take care,
Seb


EUR/USD:Wave 5 Projections

Where wave 5 (c) might end?
Big and intermediate picture.


DAX30 Futures H4 Update + Trade Plan Idea

Rationale:

Short in anticipating of wave c to the downside.

Entry:
Short Market @ 7319.50
SL: 7337.50
TP: 7280 ( I might go out sooner  if I see no impulsive progression: never let winner become loser)
R/R:7:1

Take care,
Seb


EUR/USD M30 Update + Trading Plan Idea

Rationale:
No impulsive progression to the upside, expecting deeper pull back in wave 4 now.
Long  form 1.2920: CLOSED ar +1.

Entry:
SHORT MARKET @ 1.2916
SL: Above todays high
TP: idealy 1.2877 (38% Fibo Ret)

Might work might not: any spike above todays high and I'm long again.

Seb

Silver XAGUSD H4 Update

An abc Irregular Flat wave 4 proposition.

Seb


S&P500 Futures H4 Update

So far I got abc Flat Correction as a wave (b).

Seb

EUR/USD M30 Update + Trade Plan Idea

No impulsive wave following so called (a) wave indicates more downside risk instead of end of a wave 4.

Seb

EDIT: Orginal plan:
Chart Update: nice five waves movement in last wave down.

Rationale:
I'm looking for wave c to finish in 5 waves @ 1.2920 - 1.2905 ara and buy there a small amount in case this will not be the end of wave c.

Entry @ 1.2920, 1.2905, and 1.2890
SL:1.2885
TP: above 1.30000
R/R: average is min 2:1


 
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