{lang: 'en-US'} September 2012 ~ ElliottFxTrader Blog

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Friday, 28 September 2012

Crude Oil H4 Update

Last bearish count has been invalidated, so I have re-labeled the count one degree higher, taking for granted that wave 1 black of wave 5 to the downside is finished for now.

Seb


Gold XAUUSD Daily Update

Looke like it wabt to test 1800 as a wave 5.

Seb


EUR/USD H1 Update

Trend line break out on news: that line must be tested to provide valid support. If it will be broken again to the downside then breakout is fake.
Count is void when 1.2971 is taken out. We might expect price can get to Weekly Pivot then.


Seb


Thursday, 27 September 2012

EUR/USD H1 Update

Alternative count invalidation line added.

Seb


EUR/USD H1 Update

A lot of confusion.

Seb


Crude Oil Futures H4 Update

The price is below weekly pivot and weekly break line.
So far smash down continues.


Seb



GBP/JPY H4 Update + Gann Fan

Five waves down since the wave XX high can be easy counted. Shall we continue with more weakness? Time will tell.

Gann Fan lines are showing distribution so far and that supports the count.

Seb


USD/CHf H4 Update

Nice rejection straight into the right border Fibonacci Time Cluster window.

Seb


S&P500 E-mini Futures Update

Nice moves.

Breake above 1440 would void the immediate bearish count.

Seb


DAX Futures Daily Update

Please take it with the grain of salt due to the fact that wave 2 has finished between two Fibonacci Expansions.


Seb



AUD/USD H4 Update

Zig-Zag wave (c) as a wave 2 end looks good.
And it ended right on support area of dark orange rectangle: 61% of FiboRetracment and demand zone line.

Seb



EUR/USD H1 Update

Count updated with alternative labeling in case wave 4 has finished.

Seb


Wednesday, 26 September 2012

S&P500 E-mini Futures H4 Update

For the Bears:
Let's see if WS2 will hold.
If not we might be quite close to assumption that top is in.

Seb


AUD/USD H4 Update

WS1 hit and 61% Fibo Expansion hit.
 Nice confluence in price and time (FTC) for wave b end.

Count re-labeled one degree higher.

Seb


EUR/USD H1 Update

So far so good.

Seb


Tuesday, 25 September 2012

Crude Oil H4 Update

Well,
Shall we label Wave 2 might have ended sooner than expected?

Seb




GOLD XAU/USD DAILY Update

This alternative WXY count is just in case wave 4 hasn't really finished...


Seb



Crude Oil H4 Update

ABC Flat forming as a wave 2?

Seb


EUR/USD Daily Gann Fan Update

If price break through 1.2900 level, it will reach 1.2800 very fast.
The first support then is 1x1 Gann Fan Line somewhere 1.2750 level.

Seb


EUR/JPY H4 Update

EUR/JPY H4: Weekly Pivot - Rejected. Weekly Support 1 - Rejected. No price hit the Fibo Price Cluster and 38% of whole wave 3 retracment. This might be wave 4 bottom. If it is then it is rather very bullish due to the fact 38% is fairly shallow retracment. But I wonder if wave Y of WXY structure will develop into full blown ipulsive wave and penetrate previous wave 4 teritory and 50% retracment level.

Seb


EUR/USD H1 Update

EUR/USD H1: At 1.2887 wave Y is 61& of wave W. At 1.2800 :Y=W. So far FTC hold nicely wave b up in three waves. Now we got:
- three waves down as wave c of Y is finished at 61%
- 1-2-3 waves down as we wait for futher waves 4 and 5 to develop full five wave
structure to the downside. It might even get to the 1.28000 level

The high/low that will be taken out first would determine futher price action.
Seb

Monday, 24 September 2012

EUR/USD H1 FTC Update

Fibonacci Time Cluster Update: form H4 time clusters - start: 24.09.12   20:00
                                                                                          stop:  25.09.12   04:00

Seb


USD/CHF H4 Update

Untested area around 61% of Fibo retracment but first hurdle to pass is 23% area. If we will not pass that, correction could be deeper.

Seb


EUR/USD H1 Update

Chart with weekly pivots.

Looks like z Zig-Zag might be forming on H1 TF. Ideal target is 1.28000, extended target is bottom of Untested Area.

Seb


Saturday, 22 September 2012

Crude Oil Daily Update

Lines are Weekly Pivots Supports and Resistance.

Seb


Gold XAUUSD Daily Update

Possible Fibo Extensions as the end of wave 3.

Seb



$AAPL Apple Daily Update

Gap cues anyone?

Seb


EUR/JPY H4 Update

Price action into FTC: look like we might have a new leg down to complete the wave 4 Zig-Zag.

Seb


EUR/USD H1 & H4 Update + Gann Fan


Some moderate FTC on Monday evening going into early Tuesday with normal score about 100. Might act as the end of this corrective move I guess.


Seb



S&P500 E-mini Futures H4 & Daily Update

Daily for the bulls: looks like wave 3 is finished and now we are in wave 4 correction. upside potential targets on chart.

H4 for the bears: still counting this as Double Threes Upward Corrective pattern as presented by R.N.Elliott in his book. As far as I'm concerned we need three waves up to finish last wave 3 - so far impulsive five wave structure has been counted as wave (a), now we are in wave (b) corrective area.





Thursday, 20 September 2012

Crude Oil H4 & Daily Update


On Daily chart we can see that price hit 78.6% Fibo Retracment level as a wave 4 top and DID NOT overlapse wave 1 from this bearish impulsive count.

On H4 we can see that the price is on 38%Fib Retracment of latest wave 4up and we need futher price progress to be sure that top is in, like breaking 50 and 61% of Fibo Retracment.

Right now first clue (break of previous wave 4 of lesser degree in impulsive fashion) favours more bearishness yet to come.

Seb


GBP/USD H4 Update

My last stake on this pair: the price is very close to invalidate the bearish impulsive count.

Money Flow indicator shows that no one is buying this move up (about 250pips in divergence)

Non-Linear regression model shows the move to the downward direction might have just started. Similar situation on H4.

Seb


GBP/JPY H4 Update

Looks like FTC hold the move upward.

If this is wave XX top we might fall hard from here.


Seb


EUR/JPY H4 Update

Like in a book.

Please notice very high readings in FTC on Friday, score over 150 points.

Right now we can count 5 waves down in wave c that would more or less fit 1.618% of wave a.


Seb

AUD/USD H4 Update

Another crucial level I guess.

Please notice very high score on the begining of the FTC cluser - over 150.

Seb


EUR/USD H1 & H4 Update

Crucial level is Weekly Pivot Level.

Eyes on Spanish auction.

Please notice the FTC on H4 has ended just now.


Seb




Wednesday, 19 September 2012

AUD/USD H4 Update

Almost there.

Seb


GBP/JPY H4 Update

Straight into FTC and 61% FiboExpansion.

The question is will it hold?

Seb


EUR/JPY H4 Update

Wave 4 is comming.

Seb


EUR/USD H1 Update

Weekly Pivot Broken. WS1 here we come.

Seb


Tuesday, 18 September 2012

$AAPL Apple Daily Update

We are in wave 5 of wave 3. Correction is due soon.


Seb


EUR/USD H1 & H4 Update

Not much to add, just a couple od FTC today from 11 to 14.
Please notice the weekly pivot levels.

Seb



 
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