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Thursday, 28 April 2016

GBP/USD H4 Analysis









General overview for 28/04/2016:

The corrective cycle in wave 4 is about to be completed, but only if this cycle is a form of (a)(b)(c) Irregular Flat correction. If the corrective cycle will get more complex and time consuming, then it is very possible it will evolve into Triangle pattern.  Nevertheless, for now there is one more wave to the upside missing, wave (v), and the projected minimal target level for this wave is marked as the orange rectangle between the levels of 1.4680 - 1.4717. Please notice, if the level of 1.4357 is violated, then the green impulsive cycle in wave (c) will be invalidated.

Support/Resistance:

1.4717 - WR1
1.4680 - 1.4717 - Target Level For Wave (v)
1.4380 - Weekly Pivot
1.4345 - Green Impulsive Count Invalidation Level
1.4288 - WS1
1.4045 - WS2

Trading recommendations:

Swingtraders should consider to open sell orders from the orange rectangle area with tight SL and open TP for now.



Monday, 11 April 2016

USD/JPY Daily and H4 analysis









General overview for 11/04/2016:

The current corrective cycle labeled as ABC is about to complete and the new, impulsive structure to the upside should develop soon. As per daily time frame technical picture, the current progression to the downside is about to complete and as soon as the wave 4 is done, the market should reverse lower. The invalidation line is at the level of 110.64 ( wave 1 and wave 4 overplapse) so please keep an eye on that level.

Support/Resistance:
106.01 - WS1
108.94 - Weekly Pivot
110.25 - WR1
110.64 - Invalidation Level
113.02 - WR2
115.29 - WR3

Trading recommendations:
As long as the level of 110.64 is not clearly violated the bears are in control over this market and lower prices are anticipated in the short-term.
On the bigger time frames however, there is a possible corrective cycle termination and impulsive price reversal to come in the long-term.





Monday, 14 March 2016

GBP/USD Analysis









General overview for 14/03/2016:

The corrective cycle for wave 4 is still in progress and so far only the a wave of the overall cycle had been made. The next wave is the wave b that should re-test 50%Fibo at the level of 1.4151 before the next impulsive leg will develop. The projected target for wave 4 is at the level of 1.4666, but this corrective cycle might evolve into more complex and time consuming pattern.

Support/Resistance:
1.4666 - Projected Target for Wave 4
1.4643 - WR2
1.4537 - WR1
1.4325 - Weekly Pivot
1.4216 - WS1
1.4151 - 50%Fibo

Trading recommendations:
Daytraders should buy the dips in this market while the wave b is in progress with SL below the level of 1.4150 and TP at the level of 1.4666.




Tuesday, 8 March 2016

USD/PLN Daily Analysis









General overview for 08/03/2016:

The previous analysis of this pair can be found here.

The market had completed the five wave impulsive structure to the upside at the level of 4.1576 and currently the corrective sub-cycle is in progress. The wave a and wave b of this cycle has been made and now there is one more wave to the downside to complete the overall cycle. The projected target for wave c of the wave 2 is at the level of 3.8333 if the structure will evolve into a simple abc running flat correction. On the other hand, any breakout lower will be a first clue that the market might evolve into more complex and time consuming corrective cycle in wave 2. This scenario ( alternative) is valid as long as the level of 3.5269 is not violated.

Support/Resistance:
4.1576 - Swing High
4.0592 - Technical Resistance
4.0050 - Round Number Resistance
3.8857 - Local Low
3.8333 - Projected Wave c Target

Trading recommendations:
As long as the demand area around the level of 3.8000 provides the support the bulls are still in control of this market and only buy orders should be placed ( limit or stop).





Monday, 22 February 2016

GBP/USD H4 Analysis









General overview for 22/02/2016:

The impulsive  wave progression to the downside does not looks completed yet and more lows are expected in this par. The black line is the invalidation line for the black sub-cycle in wave (iii) and green line is the invalidation lie for the overall green impulsive cycle. There are two things worth to mention:
- please notice the corrective cycle in wave (iv) might retrace as high as the bottom for the wave (i) and the count will be still correct as the Ending Diagonal
- please notice the visible bullish divergence on H4 chart supports the view that there is a time for the corrective bounce in wave (iv) before wave (v) will unfold

Support/Resistance:

1.4056 - WS2
1.415 1- WS1
1.4245 - Black count invalidation level
1.4344 - Weekly Pivot
1.4353 - Green count invalidation level
1.445 1- WR1

Trading recommendations:
Sell orders should be placed carefully as the market might start the (iv) wave correction any time now. Nevertheless, in longer perspective, one more low is needed to complete the structure.




Friday, 19 February 2016

Zaproszenie na FxCuffs 2016


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Wednesday, 17 February 2016

Hang Seng Multi Year Time Frame Analysis









General overview for 17/02/2017:

Multi-Year view according to Elliott wave principle:
From 1968 the Hang Seng Index is in bullish cycle, where the wave III of the cycle had been done. Since 2008 the index is in corrective structure that can develops into two possible formations:
- ABC red  - three wave simple corrective structure (ie. irregular flat or any other kind of simple correction)
- ABCDE red - triangle shaped pattern that is typical for wave four



Weekly time frame view:
Two of the corrective waves are completed: wave A red and wave B red. Currently the market develops wave C red to the downside, which might be the last wave in the cycle and then the correction will be completed.




Daily time frame view:
The inside of the wave progression reveals at least two possible counts: main and alternative:
- main count - WXY complex corrective pattern - this cycle might have bottomed at the 61%Fibo extension of wave W at the level of 18211. This might be the bottom for the wave A of a higher degree. If it is so, then the market should rebound in corrective  fashion to the upside ( choppiness, overlaps, false breakouts) to complete the wave B black. On the other hand, the corrective wave A might evolve into WXYXXZ pattern that targets the level of 15055 as a bottom for wave A black. In that case, the wave XX should not trade above the level of 23413.



- alternative count - 1-2, (1)-(2), (i)-(ii) impulsive pattern - this cycle shows a possible five wave downside progression in wave C red as a last wave in the overall ABC correction in wave IV. Any break out above the level of 21012 will invalidate this count.




Support/Resistance:
15055 - Projected Target for Wave A
18211 - 61%Fibo extension|Local Low|
20206 - Technical Resistance
21012 - Blue Impulsive Count Invalidation Level
23413 - Brown Impulsive Count invalidation Level

Trading recommendations:
Bearish biased swingtraders should keep the sell orders opened as long as the level of 20206 provides the resistance and the level of 21012 is the line in the sand for them. Nevertheless, the outlook for the medium term traders is still bearish as the corrective cycle in the wave IV hasn't been completed yet.

Thursday, 4 February 2016

EUR/USD H4 Analysis










General overview for 04/02/2016:

The recent analysis of EUR/USD pair had pointed out a possible upside breakout from the triangle-shaped congestion zone to one of the projected target levels. The corrective structure were a little bit longer than anticipated, nevertheless, the breakout direction was still correct. The analysis can be seen here: http://www.elliottfxtrader.com/2016/01/eurusd-h4-analysis.html



Currently, the second projected target zone has been hit and it looks like after the five upward impulsive waves the cycle is completed and now the correction should take place. We cam see on H4 time frame chart the diminishing momentum between wave a top and wave c top, one can even suggest the bearish divergence. Nevertheless, the larger structure cycle still does not look completed as only wave A had been made. Therefore, some corrective cycle should be expected now ( ideally the level of 1.1060 should be tested) and one more wave to the upside is still being anticipated.


Now,  this last picture is somewhat brave and non-ordinary count on daily chart that just caught my mind. If we look at the larger time frame, we can still see the corrective cycle is completed ( wave 4 top after the big triangle is done) and then there is impulsive decline to the downside that is truncated ( fifth wave truncation, wave 5). If it is so, then the bottom for a large cycle wave C and B is in place and current wave progression to the upside is the beginning of a very large degree cycle upward that will go above the top of the level of  1.6053, possibly in an impulsive fashion. The first confirmation will come with the demand breakthrough zone is violated (1.1261 - 1.1310), then wave 4 top is violated (1.1497) and then the   level of 1.1740 breakout in impulsive style should happen. On the other side, this scenario will be invalidated if 1.0700 and head towards longer-term support at the level of 1.0455. 


Tuesday, 26 January 2016

DAX H4 and Daily Analysis









General overview for 26/01/2016:
The recent price movement on DAX looks corrective as many overlapping sub-waves are present on H4 time frame. The best labeling for the current structure is a form of a corrective (a)(b)(c) pattern that might be a part of the wave B. In that case there is still missing one more wave to the upside, wave C. The nearest target for this wave would be the gap zone between the levels of 10525 - 10689. Nevertheless, in case of any breakout higher the next target is at the level of previous wave A top  at 11432.

Support/Resistance:
9112 - WS2
9253 - Local Low
9547 - WS1
9685 - Weekly Pivot
10124 - WR1
10279 - WR2
10525 - 10689 - Gap
10718 - WR3

Trading recommendations:
Choppy trading conditions ahead, but daytraders should consider to open buy orders with SL
below the level of 9253 and TP at the level of 10525 min.

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Wednesday, 20 January 2016

USD/CAD H4,Daily, Weekly and Monthly Analysis










General overview for 20/01/2016:
The long term and short term Elliott wave count of this pair had been updated. The current scenarios are still bullish and so far there are no indications of a possible up trend reversal. Moreover, the current wave developments is still bullish as there are uncompleted sub-cycle waves to the upside.
- on the Monthly time frame we can see the big pink cycle labeling as 1 or A and 2 or B. The reason for that is because there is still unclear whether the current long term progression is a part of a big cycle wave (B) in form of three ABC pink waves, OR whether this is an impulsive pattern to the upside that will take out the recent long-term top at the level of 1.6176. Nevertheless, there is still wave 4 missing and one more high should be made soon (targets to be determined when wave 4 low is in place).
- on the Weekly time frame situation is very similar as we can see the grey rectangle demand zone is the long term support for this pair. Only a clear violation of this level would reverse the long term trend.
- on the Daily time frame there is a projected target for the wave 3 at the level of 1.4956. Still no bearish divergence
- on the H4 time frame the momentum is diverging as the price is breaking above the dashed channel. This might be a firs indication the lower time frame cycle are mature
- on the H1 time frame there is a target projection for the immediate wave (3) . Nevertheless, still one more wave to the upside is expected.

Support/Resistance:
1.4835 - WR1
1.4755 - Wave (3) Target Projection
1.4603 - Intraday Support
1.4445 - Weekly Pivot

Trading recommendations:
Swingtraders should still keep the open buy orders as there are uncompleted upside waves in this market and there is no signs of a trend reversal (yet).

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Tuesday, 19 January 2016

GBP/USD H4 and Daily Analysis









General overview for 19/01/2016:

(the previous analysis of this pair might be seen here)

The impulsive wave progression to the downside has not been completed yet as there are
some sub-waves missing. In order to complete the cycle, the market must make the corrective
 cycle labeled as wave iv and then move below the last local low at the level of 1.4234. Please
 notice that even this lower breakout will not terminate the impulsive wave progression - it will
be only the  wave (iii) bottom. There is still a room for a further lower prices and downside
pressure will persist.

Support/Resistance:

1.4083 - WS1
1.4234 - Local Swing Low
1.4344 - Weekly Pivot
1.4436 - WR1
1.4473 - Wave iv Target Projection
1.4694 - WR2


Trading recommendations:

Swingtraders should keep the sell orders open as the down trend has not been completed yet.


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Friday, 15 January 2016

EUR/USD H4 Analysis









General overview for 15/01/2016:

There are still two different scenarios possible for this pair, both of them have clearly defined invalidation levels:
- scenario one - main green impulsive count - still sees a possible top for the wave 4 green to be finally set, but it must happen below the level of 1.1086. Any breakout higher invalidates the impulsive downside count
- scenario two  - alternative purple count - will get in charge when the level of 1.1086 is violated
as a part of an ENDING DIAGONAL wave 5 pink of a larger cycle
There are three different levels where the wave 2 purple might be terminated. The projected target levels depends on the form of the pattern in the last stage of the corrective cycle which is hard to
say at the present moment. The wave 5 pink target projection is around the parity level +-100 pips.

Support/Resistance:

1.4000 - 1.3767 - Target 3
1.1277 - 1.1226 - Target 2
1.1162 - 1.1116 - Target 1
1.1086 - Invalidation Level

Trading recommendations:

The daytraders and swingtraders should consider to open sell orders from the orange rectangle
zones with SL just above the higher zone boundary and wait for the trend reversal confirmation
 ( i.e.: candlestick formation, MA crossover, etc).

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Thursday, 14 January 2016

USD/RUR (Russian Ruble) Daily Analysis











General overview for 14/01/2016:

The previous analysis of this pair might  be found here.

After making the corrective cycle bottom at the level of 60.37 and finishing the triangle
pattern in wave 4, the #USDRUB pair has started the impulsive advance to the upside to
complete the wave 5 black. Currently there are two possible scenarios  for this progression,
both are BULLISH:
 - the first  scenario (main count)  indicates a possible termination of the impulsive cycle around
the level of 79-80 due to the building bearish divergence between the price and momentum
indicator
- the second scenario (alt. count)  indicates a possible extension in wave three of the five wave impulsive cycle and new higher high in this pair might be easy accomplished. Breakout below
the level of 71.16 will be first clue this scenario is invalidated.


Support/Resistance:
79.51 - Swing High
75.38 - Immediate Support
71.16 - Technical Support

Trading recommendations:
Swing traders should watch this pair carefully as the uptrend might terminate any time soon.
Targets for the long term buy orders should be placed around the last swing high level and then trailing stop loss orders should be used.

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Wednesday, 13 January 2016

GBP/AUD Daily and Weekly Analysis









General overview for 13/01/2016:

There are two possible counts here, both of them are BULLISH and the difference is in the
placement of the wave 3 top:
- on the Weekly time frame chart we can see the impulsive wave progression had been
 rejected just above the 61%Fibo of the previous swing and it had been labeled as the
top for the wave 3. Currently the market is in the corrective cycle wave 4 that looks finished
 ( details on the Daily chart).
- on the Daily time frame the count is slightly different than the Weekly, the difference
 is in the labeling of the impulsive upward cycle. Nevertheless, the market has made the
 corrective cycle in wave (4) and now it is ready to trade higher again. The most important
 level for the blue impulsive count is 2.0177 ( blue impulsive count invalidation level )
and the level of 2.0028 ( black impulsive count invalidation level).
The projected wave progression is still to the upside and it should develop in impulsive
fashion.
The top for the wave (5) should be min. at the level of 2.2403.

Support/Resistance:
2.0028 - black impulsive count invalidation level
2.0177 - blue impulsive count invalidation level
2.1215 - technical resistance
2.1708 - technical resistance

Trading recommendations:
Swing traders should consider to open long-to-mid term buy orders with SL below the level
of 2.0177 and TP at the level of 2.2403.

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Monday, 11 January 2016

USD/PLN Daily Analysis









General overview for 11/01/2016:

(the previous analysis of this pair might be seen here)

The impulsive wave progression to the upside has not been completed yet as there
is missing wave 5 blue to the upside. The projected level for wave 5 blue termination
is at the level of 4.1770. Nevertheless, the most important sub-cycle zone is the orange
area between the levels of 3.9291 - 3.9119 as any violation of this zone might lead to
 bullish count invalidation.

Support/Resistance:
4.1770 - Wave 5 Target Projection
4.0592 - Alternative Count Invalidation Level
3.9673 - Technical Support
3.9291 - 3.9119 - Internal Sub-Cycle Invalidation Level
3.8238 - Bullish Count Invalidation Level

Trading recommendations:
Swingtraders should keep the buy orders still open as there is at least one more high above
the level of 4.0592 coming any time soon.

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Monday, 14 December 2015

WIG20 Daily and Weekly Analysis









General overview for 14/12/2015: 

The Polish WIG 20 index is in a free fall in wave C  that hasn't been completed yet. This wave C
is a part of a corrective cycle ABC in the wave 2 of the higher degree. When the corrective cycle
is completed, the next upward wave progression should develop that will make a new higher high
 above the level of 3000.  The projected level of the wave C termination is 1676 - 1606 area.

Support/Resistance:
1993 - Technical resistance
1732 -Technical Support
1792 - Weekly Pivot
1692 - WS1
1676 - 1606 - Wave C Projected Target Zone

Trading recommendations:
Swingtraders should still keep the long term sell orders opened as the target for wave C
hasn't been completed yet.

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Monday, 7 December 2015

USD/JPY H4 Analysis










General overview for 07/12/2015:

The impulsive wave progression in last wave C is not completed yet as there is one more wave
 to the upside needed. The bullish and bearish levels are clearly defined and an upside breakout
is anticipated. When the impulsive structure is completed, then another cycle down will start
as a part of the wave Y brown. Please notice that any violation of the level of 121.46 BEFORE
 any new local high is made means the impulsive wave progression to the upside is invalidated.

Support/Resistance:
125.80 - Swing High
125.29 - WR3
124.49 - WR2
122.91 - WR1
123.78 - Bullish Zone
123.10 - Weekly Pivot
122.51 - WS1
121.72 - WS2
122.68 - Technical Support
121.46 - Invalidation Level
121.15 - WS3

Trading recommendations:
Traders should consider to open buy orders when the trade is confirmed ( breakout above
the level of 123.78) OR should be buying the dips in the yellow range with SL below the level
of 122.22.

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Friday, 27 November 2015

USD/TRY H4 Analysis










General overview for 27/11/2015:

Short term perspective: The wave B green of the Zig-Zag corrective cycle is almost completed
 and then short-term immediate down trend should resume. Please notice that the grey rectangle
 is the projected target zone for the wave (c) termination. Any breakout higher would mean more
complex and time consuming correction (ie: Double Zig-Zag, Triple Zig-Zag, Mixed).

Support/Resistnace:
3.1238 - 161%Fibo of Big Wave 1 Green
3.0741 - Swing Top
2.9743 - Technical Resistnace
2.9612 - 61%Fibo
2.9231 - 50%Fibo
2.8150 - Golden Trend Line Dynamic Support
2.7783 - Wave A Bottom
2.6267 - Min. Target Projection

Trading recommendations:
Daytraders should consider to open sell orders from current market levels with SL above the
level of 2.9800 and TP at the level of 2.7784 min.
Swingtraders should still keep open buy orders as there is no trend reversal just yet.

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Mój blog www.elliottfxtrader.com bierze udział w konkursie FxCuffs 2016 w kategorii Blog Roku. 
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