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Thursday, 1 December 2016

EUR/JPY Weekly Analysis








General overview for 01/12/2016:

The clear break out above the long-term golden trend line is the first classic signal of an upcoming bounce/trend reversal. According to the Elliott Wave Principle, the market had finished the ABC correction in form of an irregular flat pattern and now the bulls are trying to rally higher. In the longer perspective the top of the wave 1 at the level of 149.74 might be in danger as wave 3 unfolds. Nevertheless, first the bulls must break out above 200WMA around the level of 133.00 in order to confirm the trend reversal.

Support/Resistance:

149.74 - Swing High
133.00 - 200WMA
125.94 - Technical Resistance
109.55 - Swing Low

Trading recommendations:

First two impulsive waves are already made and now the market is trying to unfold wave three. In that case, only swing buy orders should be considered. *.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.



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Friday, 18 November 2016

GBP/USD H4 Analysis









General overview for 18/11/2016:

The complex and time-consuming corrective cycle in wave 4 might have been terminated at the level of 1.2672, just below the 50%Fibo level. Moreover, it looks like the market is making a Head&Sholuders pattern with a neck line just around 1.2400 level ( dashed blue line). If this scenario is true, then the key level would be the resistance at the level of 1.2510, because any break out higher would expose the recent high of the wave 4. Another important level is the gray rectangle are between 1.2306 - 1.2331. This is supply breakthrough zone and if broken, then the lows of the wave b will be tested soon.

Support/Resistance:

1.2940 - 1.2865 - 61% Fibo Zone
1.2846 - WR2
1.2730 - WR1
1.2672 - Wave 4 Top
1.2541 - Weekly Pivot
1.2509 - Key Level
1.2411 - WS1
1.2306 - 1.2331 - Supply Breakthrough Zone
1.2224 - WS2
1.2080 - Wave b Low

Trading recommendations:

Sell order should be opened only is the neck line is clearly violated and the level of 1.2509 is still providing the resistance. Otherwise staying aside and refraining from trading is a good choice*.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.


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Wednesday, 16 November 2016

EUR/USD Daily Analysis









General overview for 16/11/2016:

The alternative count of a big triangle in wave 4 turned out to be the correct one. Just before the US Presidential Campaign termination, the last wave of the triangle has been completed and since then the market  is declining towards the green trend line. The first wave of this decline, wave 1, is almost completed, so now it is time for an internal correction, wave 2. The projected target level for this wave is 1.0850, but if the correction ends sooner than expected, then the decline will be bigger.In order to invalidate this bearish scenario, the market would have to break out above the wave 4 top at the level of 1.1300.

Support/Resistance:
1.0709 - Intraday Support
1.0775 - Technical Resistance
1.0850 - Projected Target Level for Wave 2
1.1300 - Invalidation Level

Trading recommendations:
This might be the anticipated triangle break out, so only a sell orders should be considered*.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.



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Monday, 14 November 2016

SP500 Daily Analysis









General overview for 14/11/2016:

On the broad market index SP500 second wave correction ended at 2,027 points, thereby giving impetus for further growth. The first wave of growth, marked in green, has been completed and now the market is in a correction phase of internal wave 2. The target level for this correction is  this gap with the level of 2101 points, which is also the 50% Fibo retracement. After this adjustment further increases are expected. Cancellation of this scenario wave can occur only after level of technical support at 1,981 is clearly violated.

Support/Resistance:

2191 - All Time High
2172 - Local Resistance
2147 - Local Support
2133 - Weekly Pivot
2093 - 2101 - Projected Target Level fo Wave 2

Trading recommendations:

As long as the market stays above the level of 1981 (invalidation level), the trend is still up and long positions are preferred until proven otherwise*.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.



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Tuesday, 18 October 2016

GBP/USD H4 Analysis Update









General overview for 18/10/2016:
After the flash-crash ( labeled as the wave 3 on the chart) the market is now developing a corrective structure in wave 4. So far three waves are almost done, but the market might evolve into more complex and time-consuming structure like triangle any time soon. The line in a sand for bears seems to be the 38%Fibo at the level of 1.2509 and this is the level where the market might terminate the correction. The longer-term bias is still bearish.

Support/Resistance:
1.1933 - Swing Low
1.1989 - WS1
1.2091 - Wave b Bottom
1.2215 - Weekly Pivot
1.2346 - WR1
1.2509 - 38%Fibo
1.2580 - WR2

Trading recommendations:
Swing traders should still keep the sell orders as the impulsive wave progression to the downside hasn't been completed yet.
Day traders should look for entry to sell on rallies*.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.




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Tuesday, 4 October 2016

Crude Oil H4 Analysis









General overview for 04.10.2016:

The sideway price action in corrective cycle continues to chop. Two important zones, marked as gray supply/demand rectangles, will play a major role in the overall bull/bear fight. Moreover, from the EWP point of view, there are two counts applicable to the current wave development. The main count is still impulsive and bullish and it indicates an ongoing irregular flat corrective cycle in this commodity, The alternative count however suggests more complex and time-consuming correction that might sooner or later test the key level at 43.00 before any meaningful rally will happen.
Any breakout below the level of 39.17 will immediately invalidate the main count.

Support/Resistance:

39.17 - Wave X Bottom | Invalidation Level |
41.04 - Technical Support
42.98 - WS2 - WS2
43.00 - Key Level
43.00 - 43.49 - Demand Zone
45.91 - WS1
46.48 - Invalidation Level For Wave iii
47.12 - Weekly Pivot
47.46 - 48.43 - Supply Zone Z |OLO|
49.31 - Technical Resistance
50.06 - WR1

Trading recommendations:

Day traders should consider to open sell if the level of 46.48 is clearly violated. TP should be set at the level of 43.00.
Swing traders with buy orders opened should remain calm and wait for the level of 48.43 breakout ( bullish trend resumption level)*.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.


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Monday, 26 September 2016

EUR/USD Weekly, Daily, H4 and H1 Analysis









General overview for 26/09/2016:

There is a chance that the main impulsive count is being now is progress, nevertheless the amount of the structure called 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 i a little too many for my taste, but  hey, what the hell do I know anyway?
This is the reason why I have included the alternative count that is based on a big triangle structure.

Support/Resistance:
1.1430 - Blue Impulsive Count Invalidation
1.1365 - Green Impulsive Count Invalidation
1.1342 - WR2
1.1294 - WR1
1.1207 - Weekly Pivot
1.1160 - WS1
1.1122 - Technical Support

Trading recommendations:
The bigger and smaller time frame outlook still points to the downside and bearish trend resumption is expected sooner or later*.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.







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Wednesday, 21 September 2016

USD/PLN Weekly Analysis


General overview for 21/09/2016:

The top of the wave 3 seems to be in place and now a large, corrective cycle in form of a triangle pattern is in progress. On the other hand, there is a clear three wave downside development after the wave 3 top at the level of 4.1555 that might be labeled as wave 4. Nevertheless, it looks too short in time compared to wave 2, which is why I pursued with a more time-consuming corrective pattern. Anyway, as long as the demand zone between the levels of 3.5432 - 3.600 is not clearly violated, the probability of another high is still on the table.

Support/Resistance:
4.1555 - Swing top
4.0193 - 4.1256 - Internal Supply Zone
3.5432 - 3.6000 - Weekly Demand Zone

Trading recommendations:
Swing traders should still keep the long-term buy orders open as there is no sign of a possible up trend reversal yet*.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.


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Wednesday, 7 September 2016

Gold XAU/USD Daily Analysis









General overview for 07/09/2016:

There is still a chance that the impulsive bullish count will break out above the swing high at the level of 1377 and enters the weekly supply zone as wave 3. Nevertheless, to do this, the bulls must first break out from the horizontal congestion zone between the levels of 1305 - 1377, otherwise the correction will evolve to more complex and time-consuming cycle.

Support/Resistance:

1432 -1391 - Weekly Supply
1377 - Local High
1318 - 1307 - Key Level
1253 - Invalidation Level #1
1202 - Invalidation Level #2

Trading recommendations:

All long-term buy order should be still kept open. There is a possibility to add to the current long positions when the market will be trading around the key level zone*.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.


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Monday, 5 September 2016

GBP/JPY Weekly, Daily and H4 Analysis









General overview for 05/09/2016: 

As anticipated many months ago the top of the wave C of the wave 4 had been established at the level of 195.93. Since then the market has been in a down ward wave progression, where another five waves had been made. The bottom of this progression looks to be at the level of 128.75 and now the market is in the corrective cycle. The best-fitting Elliott wave count is an (a)(b)(c) Zig-Zag pattern with currently unfinished wave (c). The projected target for an ideal termination level for wave (c) is 50%Fibo at the level of 144.44. Nevertheless, the current horizontal wave progression might evolve into more complex and time-consuming pattern, like double/triple Zig-Zag or any other complex WXYZ pattern.

Support/Resistance:

128.75 - Long Term Bottom
136.85 - Wave iv Support
138.84 - Wave (3) Top
140.75 - 38%Fibo
144.44 - 50%Fibo

Trading recommendations:

There are no visible clues regarding the down trend reversal in the higher time frames as there is one more wave to the downside to made. Bias is still sideways/bearish*.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.




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Thursday, 1 September 2016

Crude Oil H4 Analysis









General overview for 01/09/2016:
(previous analysis of this market can be seen here)

There are two possible scenarios at the Crude Oil market right now: one of them is bullish (impulsive, main one) and the other one is bearish.sideways (complex corrective structure, alternative one):
 - Scenario One - Main Count - The bullish wave progression in order to develop wave 3 had been terminated at the level of 49.35 where the top for the wave 1 is. Currently, a sub-wave 2 of the overall impulsive structure is being developed, so we got two possible zones for the correction to terminate ( two gray rectangles). The lower rectangle is the key zone where plenty of various supports confluence, so it more solid for bulls.
 - Scenario Two - Alternative Count - According to this wave progression the market is still in a complex horizontal correction. One more wave is still being expected to the upside with the top above the level of 51.67 before the market will reverse and go back to the downtrend again.

Support/Resistance:
39.17 - Technical Support
41.04 - Technical Support
43.50 - 43.07 - Key Reversal Zone
43.40 - WS3
44.27 - 44.65 - Potential Reversal Zone
44.93 - WS2
45.95 - WS1
46.35 - Line In The Sand for Bears
47.45 - Weekly Pivot
48.50 - WR1
49.35 - Technical Resistance
49.98 - WR2

Trading recommendations:
Daytraders should remain bearish with a target at the Key Reversal Zone.
Swingtraders should wait for the market to go lower towards the Key Reversal Zone and buy the dips with tight SL*.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.


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Tuesday, 23 August 2016

GBP/USD H4 Analysis









General overview for 23/08/2016:
(the last analysis of this forex pair can be seen here)

There is no decisive move yet on this market in either direction, but the recent update in Elliott wave progression revealed a simple impulsive downward wave development possibility that will be valid until the level of 1.3377 is not clearly violated.  If this key level is however violated, then the next target for bulls will be the gap zone ( marked as the yellow rectangle) between the levels of 1.3483 - 1.3603. The longer term outlook remains BEARISH.

Support/Resistance:
1.2729 - WS2
1.2794 - Wave 1 Bottom
1.2905 - WS1
1.3047 - Weekly Pivot
1.3229 - WR1
1.3364 - WR2
1.3377 - Invalidation Level
1.3483 - 1.3603 - Gap

Trading recommendations:
As long as the price stays below the level of 1.3377 selling the rallies up is the way to trade in this market*.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. 



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Wednesday, 3 August 2016

GBP/USD H4 Analysis Update









General overview for 03/08/2016:
There are two scenarios that can help to determine when the wave (c) of wave 2 will terminate and the market reverses:
- Ending Diagonal Scenario - green arrows - the market will perform another wave up towards the level of 1.3609 and then reverses impulsively down
- Full Zig-Zag Scenario - green arrows - the market will burst through the yellow zone in impulsive fashion and try to hit the 50%Fibo at the level of 1.3907 before reversal will happen

Support/Resistance:
1.2793 - Technical Support
1.2975 - WS2
1.3125 - WS1
1.3208 - Weekly Pivot
1.3359 - WR1
1.3452 - WR2
1.3489 - 1.3609 - Yello Gap Zone
1.3645 - 38%Fibo
1.3907 - 50%Fibo

Trading recommendations:
There is still uncompleted wave progression to the downside and in the mid-term the market should return to the down trend as soon as the correction cycle is completed*.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. 



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