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Monday, 26 September 2016

EUR/USD Weekly, Daily, H4 and H1 Analysis









General overview for 26/09/2016:

There is a chance that the main impulsive count is being now is progress, nevertheless the amount of the structure called 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 i a little too many for my taste, but  hey, what the hell do I know anyway?
This is the reason why I have included the alternative count that is based on a big triangle structure.

Support/Resistance:
1.1430 - Blue Impulsive Count Invalidation
1.1365 - Green Impulsive Count Invalidation
1.1342 - WR2
1.1294 - WR1
1.1207 - Weekly Pivot
1.1160 - WS1
1.1122 - Technical Support

Trading recommendations:
The bigger and smaller time frame outlook still points to the downside and bearish trend resumption is expected sooner or later*.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.







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Wednesday, 21 September 2016

USD/PLN Weekly Analysis


General overview for 21/09/2016:

The top of the wave 3 seems to be in place and now a large, corrective cycle in form of a triangle pattern is in progress. On the other hand, there is a clear three wave downside development after the wave 3 top at the level of 4.1555 that might be labeled as wave 4. Nevertheless, it looks too short in time compared to wave 2, which is why I pursued with a more time-consuming corrective pattern. Anyway, as long as the demand zone between the levels of 3.5432 - 3.600 is not clearly violated, the probability of another high is still on the table.

Support/Resistance:
4.1555 - Swing top
4.0193 - 4.1256 - Internal Supply Zone
3.5432 - 3.6000 - Weekly Demand Zone

Trading recommendations:
Swing traders should still keep the long-term buy orders open as there is no sign of a possible up trend reversal yet*.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.


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Wednesday, 7 September 2016

Gold XAU/USD Daily Analysis









General overview for 07/09/2016:

There is still a chance that the impulsive bullish count will break out above the swing high at the level of 1377 and enters the weekly supply zone as wave 3. Nevertheless, to do this, the bulls must first break out from the horizontal congestion zone between the levels of 1305 - 1377, otherwise the correction will evolve to more complex and time-consuming cycle.

Support/Resistance:

1432 -1391 - Weekly Supply
1377 - Local High
1318 - 1307 - Key Level
1253 - Invalidation Level #1
1202 - Invalidation Level #2

Trading recommendations:

All long-term buy order should be still kept open. There is a possibility to add to the current long positions when the market will be trading around the key level zone*.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.


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Monday, 5 September 2016

GBP/JPY Weekly, Daily and H4 Analysis









General overview for 05/09/2016: 

As anticipated many months ago the top of the wave C of the wave 4 had been established at the level of 195.93. Since then the market has been in a down ward wave progression, where another five waves had been made. The bottom of this progression looks to be at the level of 128.75 and now the market is in the corrective cycle. The best-fitting Elliott wave count is an (a)(b)(c) Zig-Zag pattern with currently unfinished wave (c). The projected target for an ideal termination level for wave (c) is 50%Fibo at the level of 144.44. Nevertheless, the current horizontal wave progression might evolve into more complex and time-consuming pattern, like double/triple Zig-Zag or any other complex WXYZ pattern.

Support/Resistance:

128.75 - Long Term Bottom
136.85 - Wave iv Support
138.84 - Wave (3) Top
140.75 - 38%Fibo
144.44 - 50%Fibo

Trading recommendations:

There are no visible clues regarding the down trend reversal in the higher time frames as there is one more wave to the downside to made. Bias is still sideways/bearish*.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.




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Thursday, 1 September 2016

Crude Oil H4 Analysis









General overview for 01/09/2016:
(previous analysis of this market can be seen here)

There are two possible scenarios at the Crude Oil market right now: one of them is bullish (impulsive, main one) and the other one is bearish.sideways (complex corrective structure, alternative one):
 - Scenario One - Main Count - The bullish wave progression in order to develop wave 3 had been terminated at the level of 49.35 where the top for the wave 1 is. Currently, a sub-wave 2 of the overall impulsive structure is being developed, so we got two possible zones for the correction to terminate ( two gray rectangles). The lower rectangle is the key zone where plenty of various supports confluence, so it more solid for bulls.
 - Scenario Two - Alternative Count - According to this wave progression the market is still in a complex horizontal correction. One more wave is still being expected to the upside with the top above the level of 51.67 before the market will reverse and go back to the downtrend again.

Support/Resistance:
39.17 - Technical Support
41.04 - Technical Support
43.50 - 43.07 - Key Reversal Zone
43.40 - WS3
44.27 - 44.65 - Potential Reversal Zone
44.93 - WS2
45.95 - WS1
46.35 - Line In The Sand for Bears
47.45 - Weekly Pivot
48.50 - WR1
49.35 - Technical Resistance
49.98 - WR2

Trading recommendations:
Daytraders should remain bearish with a target at the Key Reversal Zone.
Swingtraders should wait for the market to go lower towards the Key Reversal Zone and buy the dips with tight SL*.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.


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Tuesday, 23 August 2016

GBP/USD H4 Analysis









General overview for 23/08/2016:
(the last analysis of this forex pair can be seen here)

There is no decisive move yet on this market in either direction, but the recent update in Elliott wave progression revealed a simple impulsive downward wave development possibility that will be valid until the level of 1.3377 is not clearly violated.  If this key level is however violated, then the next target for bulls will be the gap zone ( marked as the yellow rectangle) between the levels of 1.3483 - 1.3603. The longer term outlook remains BEARISH.

Support/Resistance:
1.2729 - WS2
1.2794 - Wave 1 Bottom
1.2905 - WS1
1.3047 - Weekly Pivot
1.3229 - WR1
1.3364 - WR2
1.3377 - Invalidation Level
1.3483 - 1.3603 - Gap

Trading recommendations:
As long as the price stays below the level of 1.3377 selling the rallies up is the way to trade in this market*.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. 



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Wednesday, 3 August 2016

GBP/USD H4 Analysis Update









General overview for 03/08/2016:
There are two scenarios that can help to determine when the wave (c) of wave 2 will terminate and the market reverses:
- Ending Diagonal Scenario - green arrows - the market will perform another wave up towards the level of 1.3609 and then reverses impulsively down
- Full Zig-Zag Scenario - green arrows - the market will burst through the yellow zone in impulsive fashion and try to hit the 50%Fibo at the level of 1.3907 before reversal will happen

Support/Resistance:
1.2793 - Technical Support
1.2975 - WS2
1.3125 - WS1
1.3208 - Weekly Pivot
1.3359 - WR1
1.3452 - WR2
1.3489 - 1.3609 - Yello Gap Zone
1.3645 - 38%Fibo
1.3907 - 50%Fibo

Trading recommendations:
There is still uncompleted wave progression to the downside and in the mid-term the market should return to the down trend as soon as the correction cycle is completed*.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. 



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Tuesday, 2 August 2016

EUR/USD H1 Analysis Update









General overview for 02/08/2016:

There are two possible Elliott wave scenarios regarding the upcoming termination of the counter- trend wave 2 and price reversal in order to return to the main trend (which is DOWNSIDE):
- Main Scenario - Green Arrows - indicates a possible congestion area in corrective sub-cycle in wave (iv) and then one more wave to the upside towards the level of 1.1254. The corrective structure, therefore, would be in  a shape of (a)(b)(c) Irregular Flat
- Alternative Scenario - Red Arrows - indicates a possible termination of an abc-x-abc double three upward wave progression when the level of 61%Fibo is hit.The reversal should happen in impulsive fashion and it should break out below the level of 1.1197 and 11.1154 like no tomorrow.

Resistance/Support:
1.1303 - WR1
1.1254 1.1228 - Fibo retracement zone
1.1216 - 161%Fibo Ext of the previous structure
1.1190 - Intraday Support
1.1154 - Intraday Support
1.1129 - Weekly Pivot
1.1060 - WS1

Trading recommendations:
Due to the fact that the higher time frame trend is still down and there are some indications that a corrective cycle might be completed, sell orders are preferred from the grey zone area with a rather tight SL*.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. 


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Monday, 1 August 2016

Crude Oil H4 Analysis









General overview for 01/08/2016:

The corrective cycle in wave 2 is getting more complex and time-consuming. The market had slipped below the 38%Fibo at the level of 41.86 and below the Schiff's modified pitchfork that ranges worked so well during the corrective cycle. Moreover, there is no sign of overbalance yet as the green corrective rectangle still has not been violated. The next projected target for wave c of wave Y is 50%Fibo at the level of 38.84.  The higher time frame outlook is more bullish than bearish due to impulsive recovery from mid- February lows at 25.21.

Support/Resistance:
38.15 - WS2
38.84 - 50%Fibo
39.49 - WS1
41.90 - Weekly Pivot
42.99 - Technical Resistance
43.25 - WR1
44.41 - Technical Resistance
45.75 - WR2
47.09 - WR3

Trading recommendations:
Sell orders should be in play, but only for intraday time frame as the market might be close to reversal when the wave 2 is terminated*.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. 


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Friday, 15 July 2016

GBP/USD H4 Analysis









General overview for 15/07/2016:

The Friday price action resulted in a big down Doji candle, but it looks like there is more wood to chop to the upside anyway. From the Elliott Wave Theory point of view, the corrective cycle to the upside hasn't been completed just yet and one more wave is needed anyway. Two scenarios are possible here:
- Scenario One - Main Count - Wave (iv) correction in progress - this wave should complete ideally around the 38%Fibo at the level of 1.3645 and then the impulsive spike down fro wave (v) should occur. It might, however, rally a little higher towards 505Fibo at the level of 1.3907 before down trend will continue. The invalidation line is at the level of 1.4012.
-Scenario Two - Alternative Count - the bottom for the wave 1 had been established at the level of 1.2793 and now the market is developing a corrective cycle in wave 2. The levels are for now the same as per wave (iv)
Please notice this is only a simple correction scenario and it might get more complex and time-consuming at any point in time.

Support/Resistance:

1.2675 - WS1
1.2793 - Local Low
1.3118 - Supply Zone
1.3216 - WR1
1.3483 - 1.3616 - Supply Zone
1.3552 - WR1
1.3645 - 38%Fibo
1.3907 - 50%Fibo
1.4012 - Invalidation Level

Trading recommendations:

Sell orders should be opened from the 38% and 50% levels as per analysis above*.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. 


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Thursday, 14 July 2016

USD/CHF H4 Analysis









General overview for 14/07/2016:

The market is currently in counter trend corrective cycle  and the wave c to the downside is being anticipated in order to complete the correction. The corrective structure might be in the shape of a simple abc correction like irregular flat or running flat.  The market will resume the up trend when the corrective cycle is terminated.

Support/Resistance:

0.9955 - Wave 1 Top
0.9916 - WR1
0.9893 - Intraday Resistance
0.9800 - Weekly Pivot
0.9737 - WS1
0.9685 - Intraday Support
0.9620 - WS2
0.9519 - Invalidation Level

Trading recommendations:

The higher time frame trend is still up, so buying the dips in the wave c is the way to trade this market now. Sl should be placed below the level of 0.9519*.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. 




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Monday, 11 July 2016

Gold XAUUSD Daily Analysis









General overview for 11/07/2016:
(previous analysis of this pair can be seen here)

The current situation on #GOLD market is clearly a bullish upward wave development. After the low at the level of $1045, the market has made a five wave impulsive structure labeled as 1/A and then a three-wave corrective counter-trend pattern labeled as wave 2/B.  If this labeling is correct, then the market should now make a wave 3 to the upside in sudden, impulsive fashion. Otherwise, the corrective structure in wave 2 will evolve into more complex and time-consuming pattern. The key level for bulls is the zone between the levels of $1307 - 13018 as any breakout lower will make the corrective cycle in wave 2 more complex. First invalidation level for the bullish impulsive scenario is at the level of 1253.

Support/Resistance:

1432 -1391 - Weekly Supply
1377 - Local High
1318 - 1307 - Key Level
1253 - Invalidation Level #1
1202 - Invalidation Level #2

Trading recommendations:

All long-term buy order should be still kept open. There is a possibility to add to the current long positions when the market will be trading around the key level zone*.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. 


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Wednesday, 6 July 2016

USD/CHF H4 Analysis of Two Scenarios









General overview for 06/07/2016:
(previous analysis of this pair can be seen here)

There are two possible scenarios for this pair as the impulsive cycle to the upside does not look completed:
- Scenario 1 - Main Count - the impulsive rally towards the level of min.0.9955 has not been completed yet and if the intraday resistance at the level of 0.9836 is violated, then the break out above the golden descending trend line will take place. The invalidation of this scenario comes with the level of 0.9516 violation (green arrows)
-Scenario 2 - Alternative Count - the corrective cycle in wave 2 has not been completed yet and at least one more wave to the downside is needed. Any break out below the intraday support at the level of 0.9685 will confirm this scenario. The invalidation of this scenario comes with the level of 0.9443 violation (red arrows).

Support/Resistance:

0.9443 - Invalidation Level
0.9516 - Invalidation Level
0.9620 - WS2
0.9670 - WS1
0.9685 - Intraday Support
0.9752 - Weekly Pivot
0.9797 - WR1
0.9836 - Intraday Resistnace
0.9882 - WR2
0.9931 - WR3

Trading recommendations:

As long as the level of 0.9658 is not clearly violated only buy orders should be opened because there is still uncompleted wave development to the upside*.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. 



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Tuesday, 5 July 2016

Guest Post: Important Forex Lessons You Must Learn


The beauty of Forex trading is that everybody can do it. You do not need to be a daily trader to do Forex, you can trade occasionally and still come up with profit. In fact, the Forex market is so gigantic and omnipresent that every time you travel overseas and exchange currencies you’re somehow affecting it.

Despite the enormous size of the Forex market, trading currencies could be fairly simple with enough knowledge. Below we’re going to examine few Forex trading lessons that you’ll need to learn before making your first investment.

Yield Drives Return

Remembering the statement above is integral to trading currencies. When you are trading currencies in the foreign exchange spot market, you’re basically selling and buying two underlying currencies. Because currencies are being valued in relation to each other, they’re being quoted in pairs. For example, if the USD/EUR is quoted at 0.82, this means it’ll cost the investor 0.82 in Euro to purchase 1 USD.
In effect, if you’re simultaneously buying a currency and selling the other. The return is derived by basis points. Basis points are calculated as part of the interest specified by the country from which the currency is originating. Making sure you are aware of the interest rates and basis points of the currencies you’re buying and selling is important to ensure you’re making profit.

Risk Tolerance
Before embarking on a Forex trading journey, a trader has to define his tolerance for risk. Studying and analyzing your financial goals and the market you’re investing in is essential. Making sure that your capital allocation to Forex isn’t excessive or lacking should be the highest among your priorities.
Also, to be able to accurately calculate the risk, you’ll need to identify the strategy you’re going to work with. Identifying the strategy will help you calculate how much exactly you’ll need to carry out your plan, which is integral in Forex trading because once you choose a plan you’re going to have to stick to it.
Choosing a Broker
Since Foreign exchange trading is primarily done online, choosing the right broker for your level of expertise is significantly important. I’ve recently switched to cmc markets. It can be highlighted as a make or break decision.
Before picking a broker, the trader should take his time to scrutinize every detail about the package available. Most importantly, their level of support, reviews, customer satisfaction level. Also the software made available. It should be available on several platforms to give you access wherever you go. Most importantly on the platform you use, be it a mobile application or a desktop operating software.
Trade Gradually
It’s important for a new investor not to go all the way in at the beginning. Testing the waters by investing with smaller amounts will gain you experience while significantly cutting your expenses. This should be determined by how much risk you’re willing to take at the start.
Reallocating more of your capital will be easy once you take off properly.
Once you’re an established investor, you’ll be able to increase your investments from your organic gain, consequently harboring less risk. Trading gradually is a strategy that is often implemented by professionals and beginners alike. Mastering the strategy will come in handy once a new trend is introduced and the status of the market is not yet stable. It’s a fantastic method to test the waters before going in completely.

Consider Automation

Once you already know your way around as Forex trader, automation will be your finest resort to boost returns. Trading is primarily logical so casting aside your emotions is integral to your success as a Forex trader. To minimize the role of emotions you’ll have to rely more on automated trading behaviors and strategies.
Despite encouraging you to integrate automated techniques, you’re also advised not to rely too much on snake oil products, Forex robots, and unverifiable wonder methods. In short, as the stakes rise and the risk increases, you’ll have to cut improvisation to the lowest limit possible. You’ll need to ensure that your response don’t vary much in similar trading scenarios.

Foreign exchange, like any other form of trading, requires meticulous care and paying attention to the smallest of details. Keeping notes, doing paper and pen analysis, keeping it simple, studying your success, and failure are all important advices that you should heed if you’re to become a successful Forex trader.

 
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