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Tuesday, 24 May 2016

USD/CHF H1 Analysis









General overview for 24.05.2016:

There is almost a classical impulsive wave development at the intraday time frame on this pair.

The impulsive wave progression to the upside hasn't been completed yet as there is at least one more wave to the upside missing. The current projected target is zone between the levels of 0.9952 - 0.9975. When this zone is hit, then larger degree corrective cycle should develop, possibly in the shape of a triangle pattern.  Please notice, that any violation of the level of 0.9761 will invalidate the impulsive scenario.

Support/Resistance:
0.9443 - Swing Low
0.9692 - WS2
0.9813 - WS1
0.9866 - Weekly Pivot
0.9952 - 0.9975 - Projected Target Zone for Wave (v) of Wave 3

Trading recommendations:
All bulls should consider to partially close the buy orders due to the corrective cycle of a higher degree coming soon. Nevertheless, as long as the level of 0.9761 is not violated, buying the dips is the way to trade this market now.


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Monday, 23 May 2016

EUR/USD H4 Analysis









General overview for 23/05/2016:

There are some first indications of a possible impulsive wave development to the downside. The current labeling is valid under one condition: the wave 1 is a Leading Diagonal, so wave 4 can not overlaps the level of 1.1355. Moreover, the five wave impulsive sub - structure looks almost completed and the bullish divergence between the price and the oscillator supports the view. Please notice that the current structure still moves inside of the channel and any break out of the channel will determine the future wave progression.

Support/Resistance:

1.1625 - Swing High
1.1381 - Technical Resistance
1.1141 - Technical Support

Trading recommendations:

All swing traders should keep the sell orders open as the price is trading at the key level. Any break out lower will confirm that the bears have control over the market, but the any upside corrective rally can not violate the level of 1.1355.


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Wednesday, 18 May 2016

Gold XAUUSD Weekly and Daily Analysis










General overview for 18/05/2016:

It is quite possible that a longer term bottom had been established on this market, so we will analyze it in two time frames:
- weekly - this long-term cycle indicates a bottom for the wave 2/B at the level of $1045 and a first bullish impulsive rally towards the resistance at the level of old wave four of the lower degree. The failure is expected here as the lower time frames trend is mature and corrective cycle towards the level of 75 - $1180 is expected. When this correction is completed, another impulsive rally should develop towards the level of $1566.
- daily - the impulsive structure looks mature and it can terminate any time soon as there is only one wave to the upside missing to complete the structure. When the last wave (v) in form of an Expanding Ending Diagonal structure is completed, then a cocorrectiveycle towards the level of $1180 is ananticipated

Support/Resistance:

1307.50 - Local Top
1180.00 - 1175.00 - Projected Target Area For Wave 2/B
1045.25 - Long Term Cycle Support

Trading recommendations:

All buy orders shshouldow be closed as the trend is mature and might reverse soon. Nevertheless, swing traders shshouldonsider to buy the dips as the market will be in the corrective cycle towards the level of $1180, with the SL below the level of $1045 and TP open for now.



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Tuesday, 17 May 2016

USD/JPY H4 Analysis









General overview for 17/05/2016:

The long-term low might had been established at the level of 105.53 and this bottom has been labeled as big wave 2. Nevertheless, the corrective structure in this wave 2 is now in a shape of an irregular flat, so it can evolve to more complex and time consuming pattern. On the  lower time frames, like 4H, we can see a completed impulsive structure, but there is still a chance the top at the level of 109.56 is a wave (iii) top, not wave (v). Anyway, the corrective sub-cycle is due and as long as the level of 105.53 is not violated, the higher prices are expected.

Support/Resistance:

105.06 - WS3
105.53 - Wave 2 Low | Purple Count Invalidation Level |
106.10 - WS2
107.45 - WS1
107.96 - 38%Fibo
108.20 - Intraday Support
108.50 - Weekly Pivot
109.44 - Intraday Resistance | 61%Fibo|
109.88 - WR1
110.94 - WR2

Trading recommendations:

Swing traders should consider to establish a medium-to-long term buy orders that should be accumulated inside of the yellow neutral zone. The SL for all orders should be placed below the level of 105.53 (invalidation level) and TP open for now. If the count is correct, we expect a larger time frame bullish cycle to resume shortly.


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Wednesday, 11 May 2016

USD/MXN H1 Intraday Analysis









General overview for 11/05/2016:

The corrective structure on the USD/MXN hourly time frame does not looks completed yet and the possibilities for one more leg down are high. As long as the local top for the wave 5 at the level of 18.216 is not violated, the market can still slide lower to the level of 17.807  or even to 17.623 before the uptrend will continue. Please notice this is only a simple corrective cycle possibility, but the corrective cycle might evolve into more complex and time consuming one as well.

Support/Resistance:

18.216 - Swing High
17.807 - Technical Support
17.767 - 35%Fibo
17.630 - 50%Fibo
17.623 - Technical Support

Trading recommendations:

Daytraders should consider to open sell orders from the current market levels with SL above the level of 18.216 and TP at the level of 17.807 with possible extension towards the level of 17.623.



Monday, 9 May 2016

AUD/JPY H4 Analysis








General overview for 09/05/2016:

After the five wave impulsive structure in wave 1 the three wave zig-zag correction has occurred and it looks completed as well. That means, an impulsive rebound is expected towards the key technical resistance first in this market ( levels 82.46- 82.72). So as long as the level of 77.58 is not violated, we can still expect at least some correction to the upside ( but the impulsive wave structure is more likely to happen). Please notice that the bullish divergence supports this view, but first the key intraday resistance at the level of 79.50 must be violated and bullish  follow through must happen as well to confirm a valid bullish break out. Otherwise, the corrective cycle in wave (iv) will continue  or wave 2 will be more complex and time consuming than a simple zig-zag.

Support/Resistance:
77.58 - Swing Low | Invalidation Level |
79.50 - Key Intraday Level
79.56 - Weekly Pivot
80.66 - 81.12 - Demand Breakthrough Zone
80.83 - WR1
81.95 - Overshoot Resistance
82.46 - 82.74 - Key Technical Resistance
83.26 - WR2
84.62 - WR3

Trading recommendations:
All traders should consider to open buy orders with SL below the level of 77.58 and TP1 at the level of 81.12 and TP2 at the level of 82.46.



Friday, 6 May 2016

EUR/USD H4, Daily and Weekly Analysis









General overview for 06/05/2016:

Two possible scenario are available here to consider:
- Impulsive Decline Scenario - indicates the possible top of the wave 4 at the level of 1.1615 - in this case we should see a five wave development towards the level  of 1.0824, break out lower towards 1.05555 and then new lows with projected target around 1.0166.
- Corrective Pattern Continuation Scenario - indicates only a top for wave C at the level of 1.1615 of the overall big triangle formation in wave 4 - in this case we should see a three wave move, possibly in a shape of a zig-zag with target around the level of 1.0555 (wave alt: D) and the a rebound and another three wave leg up towards the level of 1.1500 (wave alt: E ). This is the level for the triangle to be terminated and impulsive decline starting point.

Support/Resistance:

1.0000 - EUR/USD Parity Level
1.0166 - Min. Target Projection for Wave 5
1.0438 - Weekly Technical Support
1.0827 - Daily Techncial Support
1.1216 - Daily Technical Support
1.1465 - Daily Technical Resistnace
1.1615 - Wave 4 High
1.1719 - Weekly Technical Resistnace
1.1719 - 1.1530 - Weekly Supply Zone

Trading recommendations:

The swingtraders should consider to open the sell orders from current price levels with SL above the recent swing high at the level of 1.1615 and TP open for now. Nevertheless, the most important intraday  technical support is at the level of 1.1211 and as long as it is not broken, bulls are in control over this market.










Thursday, 28 April 2016

GBP/USD H4 Analysis









General overview for 28/04/2016:

The corrective cycle in wave 4 is about to be completed, but only if this cycle is a form of (a)(b)(c) Irregular Flat correction. If the corrective cycle will get more complex and time consuming, then it is very possible it will evolve into Triangle pattern.  Nevertheless, for now there is one more wave to the upside missing, wave (v), and the projected minimal target level for this wave is marked as the orange rectangle between the levels of 1.4680 - 1.4717. Please notice, if the level of 1.4357 is violated, then the green impulsive cycle in wave (c) will be invalidated.

Support/Resistance:

1.4717 - WR1
1.4680 - 1.4717 - Target Level For Wave (v)
1.4380 - Weekly Pivot
1.4345 - Green Impulsive Count Invalidation Level
1.4288 - WS1
1.4045 - WS2

Trading recommendations:

Swingtraders should consider to open sell orders from the orange rectangle area with tight SL and open TP for now.



Monday, 11 April 2016

USD/JPY Daily and H4 analysis









General overview for 11/04/2016:

The current corrective cycle labeled as ABC is about to complete and the new, impulsive structure to the upside should develop soon. As per daily time frame technical picture, the current progression to the downside is about to complete and as soon as the wave 4 is done, the market should reverse lower. The invalidation line is at the level of 110.64 ( wave 1 and wave 4 overplapse) so please keep an eye on that level.

Support/Resistance:
106.01 - WS1
108.94 - Weekly Pivot
110.25 - WR1
110.64 - Invalidation Level
113.02 - WR2
115.29 - WR3

Trading recommendations:
As long as the level of 110.64 is not clearly violated the bears are in control over this market and lower prices are anticipated in the short-term.
On the bigger time frames however, there is a possible corrective cycle termination and impulsive price reversal to come in the long-term.





Monday, 14 March 2016

GBP/USD Analysis









General overview for 14/03/2016:

The corrective cycle for wave 4 is still in progress and so far only the a wave of the overall cycle had been made. The next wave is the wave b that should re-test 50%Fibo at the level of 1.4151 before the next impulsive leg will develop. The projected target for wave 4 is at the level of 1.4666, but this corrective cycle might evolve into more complex and time consuming pattern.

Support/Resistance:
1.4666 - Projected Target for Wave 4
1.4643 - WR2
1.4537 - WR1
1.4325 - Weekly Pivot
1.4216 - WS1
1.4151 - 50%Fibo

Trading recommendations:
Daytraders should buy the dips in this market while the wave b is in progress with SL below the level of 1.4150 and TP at the level of 1.4666.




Tuesday, 8 March 2016

USD/PLN Daily Analysis









General overview for 08/03/2016:

The previous analysis of this pair can be found here.

The market had completed the five wave impulsive structure to the upside at the level of 4.1576 and currently the corrective sub-cycle is in progress. The wave a and wave b of this cycle has been made and now there is one more wave to the downside to complete the overall cycle. The projected target for wave c of the wave 2 is at the level of 3.8333 if the structure will evolve into a simple abc running flat correction. On the other hand, any breakout lower will be a first clue that the market might evolve into more complex and time consuming corrective cycle in wave 2. This scenario ( alternative) is valid as long as the level of 3.5269 is not violated.

Support/Resistance:
4.1576 - Swing High
4.0592 - Technical Resistance
4.0050 - Round Number Resistance
3.8857 - Local Low
3.8333 - Projected Wave c Target

Trading recommendations:
As long as the demand area around the level of 3.8000 provides the support the bulls are still in control of this market and only buy orders should be placed ( limit or stop).





Monday, 22 February 2016

GBP/USD H4 Analysis









General overview for 22/02/2016:

The impulsive  wave progression to the downside does not looks completed yet and more lows are expected in this par. The black line is the invalidation line for the black sub-cycle in wave (iii) and green line is the invalidation lie for the overall green impulsive cycle. There are two things worth to mention:
- please notice the corrective cycle in wave (iv) might retrace as high as the bottom for the wave (i) and the count will be still correct as the Ending Diagonal
- please notice the visible bullish divergence on H4 chart supports the view that there is a time for the corrective bounce in wave (iv) before wave (v) will unfold

Support/Resistance:

1.4056 - WS2
1.415 1- WS1
1.4245 - Black count invalidation level
1.4344 - Weekly Pivot
1.4353 - Green count invalidation level
1.445 1- WR1

Trading recommendations:
Sell orders should be placed carefully as the market might start the (iv) wave correction any time now. Nevertheless, in longer perspective, one more low is needed to complete the structure.




Friday, 19 February 2016

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Wednesday, 17 February 2016

Hang Seng Multi Year Time Frame Analysis









General overview for 17/02/2017:

Multi-Year view according to Elliott wave principle:
From 1968 the Hang Seng Index is in bullish cycle, where the wave III of the cycle had been done. Since 2008 the index is in corrective structure that can develops into two possible formations:
- ABC red  - three wave simple corrective structure (ie. irregular flat or any other kind of simple correction)
- ABCDE red - triangle shaped pattern that is typical for wave four



Weekly time frame view:
Two of the corrective waves are completed: wave A red and wave B red. Currently the market develops wave C red to the downside, which might be the last wave in the cycle and then the correction will be completed.




Daily time frame view:
The inside of the wave progression reveals at least two possible counts: main and alternative:
- main count - WXY complex corrective pattern - this cycle might have bottomed at the 61%Fibo extension of wave W at the level of 18211. This might be the bottom for the wave A of a higher degree. If it is so, then the market should rebound in corrective  fashion to the upside ( choppiness, overlaps, false breakouts) to complete the wave B black. On the other hand, the corrective wave A might evolve into WXYXXZ pattern that targets the level of 15055 as a bottom for wave A black. In that case, the wave XX should not trade above the level of 23413.



- alternative count - 1-2, (1)-(2), (i)-(ii) impulsive pattern - this cycle shows a possible five wave downside progression in wave C red as a last wave in the overall ABC correction in wave IV. Any break out above the level of 21012 will invalidate this count.




Support/Resistance:
15055 - Projected Target for Wave A
18211 - 61%Fibo extension|Local Low|
20206 - Technical Resistance
21012 - Blue Impulsive Count Invalidation Level
23413 - Brown Impulsive Count invalidation Level

Trading recommendations:
Bearish biased swingtraders should keep the sell orders opened as long as the level of 20206 provides the resistance and the level of 21012 is the line in the sand for them. Nevertheless, the outlook for the medium term traders is still bearish as the corrective cycle in the wave IV hasn't been completed yet.

Thursday, 4 February 2016

EUR/USD H4 Analysis










General overview for 04/02/2016:

The recent analysis of EUR/USD pair had pointed out a possible upside breakout from the triangle-shaped congestion zone to one of the projected target levels. The corrective structure were a little bit longer than anticipated, nevertheless, the breakout direction was still correct. The analysis can be seen here: http://www.elliottfxtrader.com/2016/01/eurusd-h4-analysis.html



Currently, the second projected target zone has been hit and it looks like after the five upward impulsive waves the cycle is completed and now the correction should take place. We cam see on H4 time frame chart the diminishing momentum between wave a top and wave c top, one can even suggest the bearish divergence. Nevertheless, the larger structure cycle still does not look completed as only wave A had been made. Therefore, some corrective cycle should be expected now ( ideally the level of 1.1060 should be tested) and one more wave to the upside is still being anticipated.


Now,  this last picture is somewhat brave and non-ordinary count on daily chart that just caught my mind. If we look at the larger time frame, we can still see the corrective cycle is completed ( wave 4 top after the big triangle is done) and then there is impulsive decline to the downside that is truncated ( fifth wave truncation, wave 5). If it is so, then the bottom for a large cycle wave C and B is in place and current wave progression to the upside is the beginning of a very large degree cycle upward that will go above the top of the level of  1.6053, possibly in an impulsive fashion. The first confirmation will come with the demand breakthrough zone is violated (1.1261 - 1.1310), then wave 4 top is violated (1.1497) and then the   level of 1.1740 breakout in impulsive style should happen. On the other side, this scenario will be invalidated if 1.0700 and head towards longer-term support at the level of 1.0455. 


Tuesday, 26 January 2016

DAX H4 and Daily Analysis









General overview for 26/01/2016:
The recent price movement on DAX looks corrective as many overlapping sub-waves are present on H4 time frame. The best labeling for the current structure is a form of a corrective (a)(b)(c) pattern that might be a part of the wave B. In that case there is still missing one more wave to the upside, wave C. The nearest target for this wave would be the gap zone between the levels of 10525 - 10689. Nevertheless, in case of any breakout higher the next target is at the level of previous wave A top  at 11432.

Support/Resistance:
9112 - WS2
9253 - Local Low
9547 - WS1
9685 - Weekly Pivot
10124 - WR1
10279 - WR2
10525 - 10689 - Gap
10718 - WR3

Trading recommendations:
Choppy trading conditions ahead, but daytraders should consider to open buy orders with SL
below the level of 9253 and TP at the level of 10525 min.

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Wednesday, 20 January 2016

USD/CAD H4,Daily, Weekly and Monthly Analysis










General overview for 20/01/2016:
The long term and short term Elliott wave count of this pair had been updated. The current scenarios are still bullish and so far there are no indications of a possible up trend reversal. Moreover, the current wave developments is still bullish as there are uncompleted sub-cycle waves to the upside.
- on the Monthly time frame we can see the big pink cycle labeling as 1 or A and 2 or B. The reason for that is because there is still unclear whether the current long term progression is a part of a big cycle wave (B) in form of three ABC pink waves, OR whether this is an impulsive pattern to the upside that will take out the recent long-term top at the level of 1.6176. Nevertheless, there is still wave 4 missing and one more high should be made soon (targets to be determined when wave 4 low is in place).
- on the Weekly time frame situation is very similar as we can see the grey rectangle demand zone is the long term support for this pair. Only a clear violation of this level would reverse the long term trend.
- on the Daily time frame there is a projected target for the wave 3 at the level of 1.4956. Still no bearish divergence
- on the H4 time frame the momentum is diverging as the price is breaking above the dashed channel. This might be a firs indication the lower time frame cycle are mature
- on the H1 time frame there is a target projection for the immediate wave (3) . Nevertheless, still one more wave to the upside is expected.

Support/Resistance:
1.4835 - WR1
1.4755 - Wave (3) Target Projection
1.4603 - Intraday Support
1.4445 - Weekly Pivot

Trading recommendations:
Swingtraders should still keep the open buy orders as there are uncompleted upside waves in this market and there is no signs of a trend reversal (yet).

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Tuesday, 19 January 2016

GBP/USD H4 and Daily Analysis









General overview for 19/01/2016:

(the previous analysis of this pair might be seen here)

The impulsive wave progression to the downside has not been completed yet as there are
some sub-waves missing. In order to complete the cycle, the market must make the corrective
 cycle labeled as wave iv and then move below the last local low at the level of 1.4234. Please
 notice that even this lower breakout will not terminate the impulsive wave progression - it will
be only the  wave (iii) bottom. There is still a room for a further lower prices and downside
pressure will persist.

Support/Resistance:

1.4083 - WS1
1.4234 - Local Swing Low
1.4344 - Weekly Pivot
1.4436 - WR1
1.4473 - Wave iv Target Projection
1.4694 - WR2


Trading recommendations:

Swingtraders should keep the sell orders open as the down trend has not been completed yet.


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