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Friday, 15 July 2016

GBP/USD H4 Analysis









General overview for 15/07/2016:

The Friday price action resulted in a big down Doji candle, but it looks like there is more wood to chop to the upside anyway. From the Elliott Wave Theory point of view, the corrective cycle to the upside hasn't been completed just yet and one more wave is needed anyway. Two scenarios are possible here:
- Scenario One - Main Count - Wave (iv) correction in progress - this wave should complete ideally around the 38%Fibo at the level of 1.3645 and then the impulsive spike down fro wave (v) should occur. It might, however, rally a little higher towards 505Fibo at the level of 1.3907 before down trend will continue. The invalidation line is at the level of 1.4012.
-Scenario Two - Alternative Count - the bottom for the wave 1 had been established at the level of 1.2793 and now the market is developing a corrective cycle in wave 2. The levels are for now the same as per wave (iv)
Please notice this is only a simple correction scenario and it might get more complex and time-consuming at any point in time.

Support/Resistance:

1.2675 - WS1
1.2793 - Local Low
1.3118 - Supply Zone
1.3216 - WR1
1.3483 - 1.3616 - Supply Zone
1.3552 - WR1
1.3645 - 38%Fibo
1.3907 - 50%Fibo
1.4012 - Invalidation Level

Trading recommendations:

Sell orders should be opened from the 38% and 50% levels as per analysis above*.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. 


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Thursday, 14 July 2016

USD/CHF H4 Analysis









General overview for 14/07/2016:

The market is currently in counter trend corrective cycle  and the wave c to the downside is being anticipated in order to complete the correction. The corrective structure might be in the shape of a simple abc correction like irregular flat or running flat.  The market will resume the up trend when the corrective cycle is terminated.

Support/Resistance:

0.9955 - Wave 1 Top
0.9916 - WR1
0.9893 - Intraday Resistance
0.9800 - Weekly Pivot
0.9737 - WS1
0.9685 - Intraday Support
0.9620 - WS2
0.9519 - Invalidation Level

Trading recommendations:

The higher time frame trend is still up, so buying the dips in the wave c is the way to trade this market now. Sl should be placed below the level of 0.9519*.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. 


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Monday, 11 July 2016

Gold XAUUSD Daily Analysis









General overview for 11/07/2016:
(previous analysis of this pair can be seen here)

The current situation on #GOLD market is clearly a bullish upward wave development. After the low at the level of $1045, the market has made a five wave impulsive structure labeled as 1/A and then a three-wave corrective counter-trend pattern labeled as wave 2/B.  If this labeling is correct, then the market should now make a wave 3 to the upside in sudden, impulsive fashion. Otherwise, the corrective structure in wave 2 will evolve into more complex and time-consuming pattern. The key level for bulls is the zone between the levels of $1307 - 13018 as any breakout lower will make the corrective cycle in wave 2 more complex. First invalidation level for the bullish impulsive scenario is at the level of 1253.

Support/Resistance:

1432 -1391 - Weekly Supply
1377 - Local High
1318 - 1307 - Key Level
1253 - Invalidation Level #1
1202 - Invalidation Level #2

Trading recommendations:

All long-term buy order should be still kept open. There is a possibility to add to the current long positions when the market will be trading around the key level zone*.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. 


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Wednesday, 6 July 2016

USD/CHF H4 Analysis of Two Scenarios









General overview for 06/07/2016:
(previous analysis of this pair can be seen here)

There are two possible scenarios for this pair as the impulsive cycle to the upside does not look completed:
- Scenario 1 - Main Count - the impulsive rally towards the level of min.0.9955 has not been completed yet and if the intraday resistance at the level of 0.9836 is violated, then the break out above the golden descending trend line will take place. The invalidation of this scenario comes with the level of 0.9516 violation (green arrows)
-Scenario 2 - Alternative Count - the corrective cycle in wave 2 has not been completed yet and at least one more wave to the downside is needed. Any break out below the intraday support at the level of 0.9685 will confirm this scenario. The invalidation of this scenario comes with the level of 0.9443 violation (red arrows).

Support/Resistance:

0.9443 - Invalidation Level
0.9516 - Invalidation Level
0.9620 - WS2
0.9670 - WS1
0.9685 - Intraday Support
0.9752 - Weekly Pivot
0.9797 - WR1
0.9836 - Intraday Resistnace
0.9882 - WR2
0.9931 - WR3

Trading recommendations:

As long as the level of 0.9658 is not clearly violated only buy orders should be opened because there is still uncompleted wave development to the upside*.
*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. 



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Tuesday, 5 July 2016

Guest Post: Important Forex Lessons You Must Learn


The beauty of Forex trading is that everybody can do it. You do not need to be a daily trader to do Forex, you can trade occasionally and still come up with profit. In fact, the Forex market is so gigantic and omnipresent that every time you travel overseas and exchange currencies you’re somehow affecting it.

Despite the enormous size of the Forex market, trading currencies could be fairly simple with enough knowledge. Below we’re going to examine few Forex trading lessons that you’ll need to learn before making your first investment.

Yield Drives Return

Remembering the statement above is integral to trading currencies. When you are trading currencies in the foreign exchange spot market, you’re basically selling and buying two underlying currencies. Because currencies are being valued in relation to each other, they’re being quoted in pairs. For example, if the USD/EUR is quoted at 0.82, this means it’ll cost the investor 0.82 in Euro to purchase 1 USD.
In effect, if you’re simultaneously buying a currency and selling the other. The return is derived by basis points. Basis points are calculated as part of the interest specified by the country from which the currency is originating. Making sure you are aware of the interest rates and basis points of the currencies you’re buying and selling is important to ensure you’re making profit.

Risk Tolerance
Before embarking on a Forex trading journey, a trader has to define his tolerance for risk. Studying and analyzing your financial goals and the market you’re investing in is essential. Making sure that your capital allocation to Forex isn’t excessive or lacking should be the highest among your priorities.
Also, to be able to accurately calculate the risk, you’ll need to identify the strategy you’re going to work with. Identifying the strategy will help you calculate how much exactly you’ll need to carry out your plan, which is integral in Forex trading because once you choose a plan you’re going to have to stick to it.
Choosing a Broker
Since Foreign exchange trading is primarily done online, choosing the right broker for your level of expertise is significantly important. I’ve recently switched to cmc markets. It can be highlighted as a make or break decision.
Before picking a broker, the trader should take his time to scrutinize every detail about the package available. Most importantly, their level of support, reviews, customer satisfaction level. Also the software made available. It should be available on several platforms to give you access wherever you go. Most importantly on the platform you use, be it a mobile application or a desktop operating software.
Trade Gradually
It’s important for a new investor not to go all the way in at the beginning. Testing the waters by investing with smaller amounts will gain you experience while significantly cutting your expenses. This should be determined by how much risk you’re willing to take at the start.
Reallocating more of your capital will be easy once you take off properly.
Once you’re an established investor, you’ll be able to increase your investments from your organic gain, consequently harboring less risk. Trading gradually is a strategy that is often implemented by professionals and beginners alike. Mastering the strategy will come in handy once a new trend is introduced and the status of the market is not yet stable. It’s a fantastic method to test the waters before going in completely.

Consider Automation

Once you already know your way around as Forex trader, automation will be your finest resort to boost returns. Trading is primarily logical so casting aside your emotions is integral to your success as a Forex trader. To minimize the role of emotions you’ll have to rely more on automated trading behaviors and strategies.
Despite encouraging you to integrate automated techniques, you’re also advised not to rely too much on snake oil products, Forex robots, and unverifiable wonder methods. In short, as the stakes rise and the risk increases, you’ll have to cut improvisation to the lowest limit possible. You’ll need to ensure that your response don’t vary much in similar trading scenarios.

Foreign exchange, like any other form of trading, requires meticulous care and paying attention to the smallest of details. Keeping notes, doing paper and pen analysis, keeping it simple, studying your success, and failure are all important advices that you should heed if you’re to become a successful Forex trader.

Monday, 4 July 2016

EUR/USD H1 Analysis









General overview for 04/07/2016:

The market is still trying to evolve into more complex and time-consuming corrective pattern. The impulsive bearish scenario, however, expects the bulls to rally as high as the level of triple resistance: WR1, 61%Fibo and technical resistance, all market as the grey rectangle on the chart. Moreover, the impulsive wave should develop very quickly as soon as this level is tested and rejected. In, however, the market moves higher and breaks the pre-Brexit top at the level of 1.1428, then this scenario is invalidated ( highly unlikely). Projected downside targets are around the level of EUR/USD parity.

Support/Resistance:

1.0900 - WS2
1.0907 - Invalidation Level
1.1018 - WS1
1.1024 - Wave b Projected Target
1.1106 - Weekly Pivot
1.1169 - Intraday Resistance
1.1232 - WR1
1.1228 - 61%Fibo
1.1254 - 66.7Fibo
1.1298 - WR2

Trading recommendations:

Swing sell orders should be still kept open as there is still uncompleted downside wave progression. Nevertheless, the market might still take its time and make the waiting period rather painfull. Patience is needed in order to trade in this market*.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. 



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Thursday, 30 June 2016

Crude Oil H4 Analysis Update









General overview for 30/06/2016:
(the previous analysis for this market can be seen here)

The corrective cycle in wave 2 might be considered done, but the market is currently too weak to break out above the golden trend line at the level of $50.  The internal corrective cycle is being expected currently, but it is still possible that further upside wave progression will develop soon. The confirmation of this scenario comes with the new high above the level of $51.67 done. Otherwise, the market will start to evolve into more complex and time-consuming corrective cycle.

Support/Resistance:
42.00 - WS3
43.00 - Technical Support
44.37 - WS2
45.70 - WS1
45.83 - Intraday Support
48.16 - Weekly Pivot
49.57 - WR1
50.58 - Intraday Resistance
51.67 - Local Top
51.95 - WR2

Trading recommendations:
As long as the level of 45.83 is not clearly violated, the traders should consider opening buy orders, especially during the market internal corrective cycles*.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. 

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Monday, 27 June 2016

DAX30 Daily Analysis After Brexit










General overview for 27/06/2016:

The corrective structure of wave C is getting now clearer as it was before. The market is moving below the 55,100 and 200 DMA and even recently it gapped down to the level of 9400 points. This gap will be a very important technical resistance for bulls from now on. Nevertheless, the bearish view for this market anticipates another impulsive wave development to the downside with a potential target at the level of 7777 points. This downside wave is a part of an irregular flat correction, so it should develop in five impulsive sub-waves.

Support/Resistance:

7777 - Target Projection For Wave C
8689 - Technical Support
9155 - Brexit Low
9075 - 10085 - GAP
10521 - Wave B Top

Trading recommendations:

Swing traders should consider opening sell orders from current market levels with SL just above the GAP zone. The potential target should be set at the level of 8689 and then at 7777*.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. 




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Tuesday, 21 June 2016

GBP/USD Daily and H4 Pre-Referendum Analysis









General overview for 21/06/2016:

It looks like one the market needs only a slight push towards the level of 1.4861 in order to complete the wave Y of the overall corrective cycle in wave 4. Just above this level there is an impulsive black count invalidation line at 1.5100. Any violation of this line would indicate, that wave C of the pink count is in progress and it will easily reach the level of 1.6000 in no time. But if the market reverses downside after completing the wave 4, then the GAP zone will be filled rather soon and new low, below the level of 1.3833 will be made as well.

Support/Resistance:

1.4012 - Wave X Low
1.4231 - WS1
1.4348 - Weekly Pivot
1.4385 - 1.4433 - Gap Zone
1.4687 - WR1
1.4796 - Technical Resistance
1.4824 - WR2
1.4861 - 61%Fibo of the last Swing
1.5100 - Black Impulsive Count Invalidation Level

Trading recommendations:

There is still on more wave to the downside missing and the technical outlook is BEARISH. All SL orders for bears should be placed just above the level of 1.5100 *.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. .




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Wednesday, 8 June 2016

EUR/GBP H4, Daily & Weekly Analysis










General overview for 08/06/2016:
The current wave development can be monitored on long and short time frames and all of them present a great opportunity to trade. Let's start with the wave development overview at the weekly time frame. We can clearly see the top of the wave 1/A at the level of 0.9800 and then a complex and time consuming downward wave development in a choppy, corrective shape. This corrective pattern had been labeled as waves WXY and it had possibly terminated at the level of 0.6935 in June last year. From that low, a clear five wave impulsive pattern can be distinguished that constitutes wave 1. It stopped at the level of 0.7493, which is now an invalidation level for the overall bullish impulsive progression. On a daily time frame we can see the market had made the wave 4 bottom at the level of 200 DMA at 0.7561 and since then another impulsive wave has developed - wave 1. This wave has topped just below the big supply zone between the levels of 0.7928 - 0.7989, so it still trades inside of the neutral zone. On even a lower time frame, like 4H, the corrective structure to the downside might be finished, but there is still a possibility for a more complex a time-consuming structure will develop if the level of 0.7842 is not clearly violated. Then the market might retrace even deeper towards the level of 0.7694 in order to complete more complex ABC corrective cycle.
Nevertheless, the overall outlook is still slightly bullish in the long term. This assumption is valid as long as the level of 0.6934 is not violated.

Support/Resistance:
0.6934 - Long-Term Swing Low
0.7494 - Green Impulsive Count Invalidation Level
0.7564 - Wave 4 Low
0.7843 - Wave B High
0.7904 - Wave 1 Top
0.7922 - 0.7989 - Supply Zone

Trading recommendations:
Swing traders:
All long term swing BUY orders should be kept open with the SL below the level of 0.6933.
All long term swing SELL orders should be closed if the level of 0.8116 is violated.
Daytraders:
All BUY orders should be still kept open as long as the level of 0.7565 is violated. More BUY  orders can be added if the level of 0.7842 is broken*.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. 




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Monday, 6 June 2016

GBP/USD Daily Analysis









General overview for 06/06/2016:
The 200DMA had capped the bull rally again as the potential top for the wave 4 has been established at the level of 1.4772.  The first  wave to the downside (1) had been made already as well and the wave (2) did not break out above the wave (1) beginning, so the labeling is still correct. Currently, the market is bouncing up from the 100 and 50 DAM support, but the Elliott wave count suggests a sharp decline towards the level of 1.3900 should develop soon.  Nevertheless, the key zone is still the area between the levels of 1.4668 - 1.4772 and as long as the market trades beneath this zone the bears are in control over this market.

Support/Resistance:
1.3833 - Local Low
1.4076 - Wave X Low
1.4668 - 1.4776 - Key Supply Zone
1.5102 - Black Impulsive Count Invalidation Level

Trading recommendations:
As long as the market trades below the key supply zone only the sell orders should be open with SL just above the level of 1.4772*.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. 



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Thursday, 2 June 2016

EUR/USD H1 Analysis Update









General overview for 02/06/2016:

The previous count that can be seen here had been invalidated due to wave i and wave iv overlaps. I've been counting the wave v to the downside will appear and then the market will start the corrective cycle to the upside, but it turned out the wave v had been terminated sooner than expected.
Anyway, the market has hit the 23%Fibo at the level of 1.1220 and this top might be considered at the wave 2 in the alternative count. Nevertheless,  the current main count, however, indicates the level of 1.1220 to be the top only for wave (a) of the overall correction as it LOOKS TOO SHALLOW for now. If this is really the top for the wave (a), then we should see a VERY SUDDEN IMPULSIVE SELL-OFF in wave 3, breaking the recent low at the level of 1.1097. A lack of such a wave development will possibly result in CORRECTIVE WAVE (b) progression down to the level of 1.1175 and then another rally upward towards 38%Fibo at the level of 1.1297.

Support/Resistance:

1.1354 - 50%Fibo
1.1297 - 38%Fibo
1.1282 - 1.1291 - Technical Resistance Zone 1
1.1242 - 1.1255 - Technical Resistance Zone 2
1.1220 - 23%Fibo
1.1175 - Key Level
1.1097 - Swing Low

Trading recommendations:

All swing sell orders should now be closed as the market is now in the corrective cycle. Stay aside and watch the market reaction to the level of 1.1175 before making any trading decision*.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade. 


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Wednesday, 1 June 2016

Crude Oil Weekly and Daily Analysis









General overview for 01/06/2016:

The main count at the weekly time frame indicates the wave C had ended with five waves downward rally at the level of $26.02. This low is the bottom for bigger cycle wave X as well, so according to the weekly Elliott wave count, there is one more wave to the upside needed to complete the cycle in big wave B. Moreover, a clear Reversed Head & Shoulders pattern at the bottom is visible, together with a clear breakout above the neckline. Moreover, at the daily time frame, the bulls had been capped just below the important key level at $51 ( psychological level of fifty dollars per barrel) and only a strong, impulsive rally to the upside might prevent the bearish wave progression to unfold, especially below the level of 42.55. Currently, $51 and 42.55 are the two most important levels for market participants.

Support/Resistance:

26.02 - Long Term Swing Bottom
34.90 - Technical Support
42.55 - Alternative Impulsive Count Invalidation Level
50.00 - Psychological Round Number
50.97 - Technical Resistance | Key Level for Bulls|

Trading Recommendations:

All swing traders should trail their buy orders and move the SL just below the 42.55 level. Adding to the existing buy orders is possible only if the level of 51,00 is clearly, impulsively violated.




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