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Thursday, 23 February 2017

Trading plan and macroeconomic analysis for 23/02/2017











Trading plan and macroeconomic analysis for 23/02/2017:

On Thursday 23rd of February, there will not be many economic releases during the European and American trading sessions and the main focus will be on Unemployment Claims data from the U.S. at 01:30 pm GMT and Crude Oil Inventories data at 04:00 pm GMT.

#EURUSD #CrudeOil #Gold
https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/88477

#DXY US Dollar Index
https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/88479

#USDCAD
https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/88481




EUR/USD H4 Analysis









General overview for 23/02/2017:

The EUR/USD pair might now start to develop an impulsive bearish pattern to the downside, which can be devastating for bulls. According to the bearish labeling, this five wave pattern had just started, but it will be fully confirmed when:
1. price will fall out of the golden channel
2. price will break out below the technical support at the level of 1.0337

In the same time, the price can not break out above the gray rectangle demand breakthrough zone, because bearish count will be invalidated and the market gets back to the trading range. The most important intraday level is the technical resistance at the level of 1.0602 at it must hold the line in order the down trend to continue.

Support/Resistance:

1.0337 - Technical Support
1.0453 - Intraday Support
1.0492 - Intraday Support
1.0602 - Intraday Resistance
1.0700 - Intraday Resistance
1.0793 - 1.0870 - Demand Breakthrough Zone

Trading recommendations:

All swing sell orders opened while the price had been trading at the gray rectangle zone should be still left open. Please keep an eye at the level of 1.0602 and in a case of a break out above this level, the sell orders should be closed.*

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.


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Wednesday, 22 February 2017

Fundamental analysis and trading plan for 22/02/2017










Fundamental analysis and trading plan for 22/02/2017:

On Wednesday 22nd of February, there will be many economic releases during the European and American trading sessions and the main focus will be on German Ifo data, second estimate GDP from the UK. CPI data from the Eurozone and finally FOMC Meeting Minutes release during the US trading session.



#EURUSD #GBPUSD #SP500
https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/88411

#EURJPY
https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/88409

#CrudeOil
https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/88407

Tuesday, 21 February 2017

Fundamental analysis and trading plan for 21/02/2017



Fundamental analysis and trading plan for 21/02/2017:

On Tuesday 21st of February, there will be many economic releases during the European and American trading sessions and the main focus will be on the Inflation Report Hearings in the UK
and Flash Manufacturing PMI data release from the US.

#AUDUSD
https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/88357

#EURJPY
https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/88357

#EURUSD #GBPUSD #CrueOil
https://www.instaforex.com/forex_analysis/88347

#SP500 Analysis in Polish
http://fxparkiet.pl/post.php?id=6199


Monday, 30 January 2017

FxCuffs 2017 voting ends in 48 hours!

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Wednesday, 25 January 2017

EUR/USD H4 & H1 Analysis









General overview for 25/01/2017: 

The main question all analysis are asking is whether the low at the level of 1.0337 is the major bottom for the big time frame cycle labeled as wave 5 OR is this a Leading Diagonal of the same wave 5 (so we should see more downside pressure soon)?
There are two possible counts available now, each one of them is trying to label this two scenarios.
The H4 time frame chart assumes the low at the level of 1.0337 is only the bottom for the wave (1) and now the market is in the complex corrective cycle. This WXY correction should terminate inside of the gray rectangle zone between the levels of 1.0794 - 1.0870. Then market should follow the red arrows marked on the chart.



The H1 time frame chart assumes the low at the level of 1.0337 is the major bottom and the alternative count was made to label a possible impulsive wave progression to the upside. The alternative impulsive cycle in the sequence of 1-2, (i)-(ii), i-ii waves, so it is extremely bullish.
Please notice, the invalidation for both counts is at the level of 1.1298, so it is a pretty
steeply upward road for the bulls.




Support/Resistance:

1.0337 - Swing Low
1.0493 - WS3
1.0568 - WS2
1.0613 - WS1
1.0675 - Weekly Pivot
1.0772 - WR1
1.0811-1.0820 - Target Projection for wave c
1.0793-1.0870 - Demand Breakthrough Zone

Trading recommendations:

All swing traders with opened SELL order should now closely watch the gray rectangle zone as any break out higher will justify the decision to close the SELL orders*.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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Monday, 23 January 2017

Nikkei225 Weekly, Daily and H4 Analysis









General overview for 23/01/2017:

After the top of the wave B-cycle at the level of 20924 in August 2015, the market is in corrective cycle wave C. The three wave down move in form of a zig-zag pattern had been labeled as wave (A). Currently, since February 2016 the market is unfolding wave (B) of the overall cycle and it looks like the top of this wave is near.



On a daily time frame chart, we can see uncompleted irregular corrective cycle for wave (B). The internal corrective structure since the top of the wave 3 at the level of 19695 had been labeled as wave 4 or (a). This means there is still one more wave missing before wave (B) is completed. Please notice this structure might evolve into more complex and time-consuming pattern as well.



The intraday H4 time frame chart clearly indicates a correct impulsive wave progression inside of the wave 3 and now an ongoing corrective cycle.




Support/Resistance:

20924 - Swing High
20024 - Technical Resistance
19695 - Wave 3 Top
18620 - Wave 4/a Bottom
17902 - Technical Support

Trading recommendations:

All traders with ongoing buy orders opened last year should now be extra careful as the up trend might be terminated soon. However, there is still one more wave to the upside missing and the target for buy orders should be placed at the level of 20000*.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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Thursday, 19 January 2017

AUD/USD Weekly, Daily & 4H Analysis









General overview for 19/01/2017:

Let's take a look at Elliott wave developments starting at weekly time frame chart. The complex corrective structure that had developed since the top of the wave X at the level of 1.1083 bottomed a the level of 0.6820. This long-term wave had been labeled as wave a of the overall structure, which means, that currently wave b of the mentioned structure is being developed.



At the daily chart, we can see more details regarding the beginnings of the bigger time frame cycle b.The five wave progression leads to the top at the level of 0.7633 labeled as 1 or A.Then we have an ABC zig-zag structure in wave 2 or B ( inc. complex correction inside of the wave B). So far the progression looks impulsive.



Finally, at 4H time frame, there is almost completed impulsive wave progression towards the level of 0.7525 ( previous wave (4) top). This progression will be terminated soon and a corrective cycle will start. The first two levels of the correction are at the support levels of 0.7491 and 0.7444. Please notice the golden trend line support - if broken, then the top is confirmed.




Support/Resistance:

0.7833 - Technical Resistance |Range Breakout Level|
0.7777 - Technical Resistance
0.7527 - Wave (4) Top
0.7491 - Intraday Support
0.7444 - Intraday Support
0.7159 - Invalidation Level

Trading recommendations:

Due to the unfinished upward cycles, higher prices in this market are being expected with the first target projection at the level of 0.7777 and 0.7833. This scenario is valid as long as the level of 0.7159 is not clearly violated*.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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Tuesday, 17 January 2017

Crude Oil Daily &4H Analysis









General overview for 17/01/2017:

The outlook for the Crude Oil is quite unclear, mainly due to too many Elliott wave scenarios possible (more than 3 at the same time). Nevertheless, I will try to present two most probable counts and each of them has totally different consequences.
First one is the very strong impulsive bullish scenario, we can see at the Daily time frame chart. The sequence of 1-2, 1-2. 1-2, (i)-(ii) indicates a very strong wave 3 unfolding, but so far it is all unconfirmed. The invalidation level for this count comes with the level of 42.14 violation.
The second count, alternative one, suggest more sideways-to-down kind of price action as the base around the level of 38-42 still hasn't been completed yet.In this count, the upward structure is only a part of a more complex correction (WXY or WXYXXZ), that still can unfold in coming days.
For both counts, the most important level is technical support at 42.14. Break out below this level will invalidate the main bullish count and confirm more downside to come in the alternative bearish count.

Support/Resistance:

26.02 - Swing Low
39.12 - Technical Support
42.12 - Technical Support |Invalidation/Confirmation Level|
48.37 - WS3
49.89 - WS2
50.97 - Technical Support
51.56 - WS1
53.29 - Weekly Pivot
54.92 - WR1
55.20 - Local High

Trading recommendations:

The long-term swing traders should pay attention to the level of 42.14 and should trail all the buy orders that are in play already.
The short-term day traders should take into account, that the market is possibly unfolding a triangle pattern or some other kind of a complex correction, so price action might get full of whipsaws and false break outs*.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.




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Friday, 13 January 2017

S&P500 Daily Analysis









General overview for 13/01/2017:

After determining the peak of the third wave at the level of 2278 points, the index of wide market SP500 is currently in a correction cycle. The first target level, ie local support for 2180 has already been tested, but further declines towards next support level at 2212 points are not excluded. Only a sudden, impulsive upside breakout in the direction of 2280 overrides the currently preferred scenario of a downward correction.

Support/Resistance:
2278 - Intraday Resistance
2279 - ATH
2259 - Weekly Pivot
2211 - Intraday Support
2180 - Intraday Support
2027 - Technical Support

Trading recommendations:
Upside seems to be limited as the top of the wave 3 is in place now. Corrective cycle ahead*.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.


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Tuesday, 10 January 2017

EUR/GBP - 2017 Daily Analysis









General overview for 10/01/2017:

The impulsive wave progression labeled as the wave 1 had been completed at the level of 0.9357 and now the market is in the corrective cycle. This cycle might have been completed in form of an Irregular Flat pattern with the bottom at the 50%Fibo of the previous swing up at the level of 0.8298. There are first indications of a possible impulsive wave development since then, but please bear in mind, that this might be only a part of a more complex wave B in progress. Any impulsive break out above the green zone will result in an immediate test of the recent swing highs. Please notice the market keeps making higher highs and higher lows and is trading above all moving averages. No signs of any trend reversal yet.

Support/Resistance:

0.9357 - Wave 1 Top
0.9000 - 0.8900 - Important Resistnace Zone
0.8298 - Wave 2 Bottom

Trading recommendations:

As there are no signs of any trend reversal just yet, only buy orders should be placed in this makret as long as the level of 0.8295 is not violated*.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.




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Monday, 9 January 2017

Gold XAU/USD - 2017 Analysis on Weekly, Daily & 4H









General overview for 09/01/2017:

The Weekly time frame chart shows, that the long-term swing top at the level of $1922 had been labeled as wave 3 high. Then the market was in a long corrective cycle, labeled as wave 4/A, with the bottom at the level of $1042. After the low was established, the market rebounded to the upside and made a first wave labeled as wave (A) with the top at the level of $1377. Then another three wave decline occurred and it was labeled as wave (B). The wave that is missing now, is wave (C) to the upside. The projected target for this wave is at 127%FibExp of the wave (A), which is somewhere around the level of $1554. The main resistance, however, will be the golden trend line and only a sustained break out above this line will result in acceleration to the upside.



Daily time frame presents a more detailed Elliott Wave labeling of the recent wave progression. We can clearly see the ABC flat corrective cycle had bottomed at the level of $1123 and then a lift off higher.



This lift off was labeled at the 4H time frame, especially wave C of the overall structure. We can see that the impulsive labeling is possible, so the overall correction might be labeled as ABC Irregular Flat cycle. Nevertheless, since that bottom, the market had retraced 23% of the previous swing, but it does not look too much impulsive so far. Patience is needed now.




Support/Resistance:

1045 - Swing Low
1123 - Wave (B) Low
1202 - Technical Resistance
1232 - 50%Fibo
1243 - Technical Resistance
1256 - 61%Fibo
1337 - Wave B Top

Trading recommendations:

So far the is no reason for bulls to close the buy orders, but please notice the invalidation line is at the level $1124. Swing traders should keep in mind, that all long-term buy orders might have troubles around the level of 1330 - 1380 (if they ever get there at all), but if this level is violated, then the projected target is around the level of $1555*.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.
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Sunday, 8 January 2017

EUR/USD - 2017 Analysis - H4









General overview for 09/01/2017:

There is an interesting, text book example pattern at the 4H time frame in this pair. The Leading Diagonal Triangle pattern has been labeled as the main scenario for the current wave development - wave (1). The alternative scenario is indicating a more bearish wave development to the downside in form of 1-2, (1)-(2), 1-2 wave progression. For this count, the invalidation line is at the level of 1.0648, so if this level is violated, then the alternative purple count is invalidated and the corrective structure in wave (2) will extend to the upside with the firs target at the level of 1.0850.

Support/Resistance:

1.03375 - Swing Low
1.0648 - Blue Impulsive Count Invalidation Level
1.0850 - Technical Resistance

Trading recommendations:

The last wave in the impulsive sequence is now being developing. There are no immediate signs regarding a trend reverse, so all swing sell orders still should be kept open. Moreover, the daytraders should pay attention to the level of 1,0648 - break out above would mean a deeper corrective bounce to the upside*.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.



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